What will it take to get Boris Johnson out – and when might it happen?

As more ministers resign by the hour, John Rentoul looks at the mechanics of removing a prime minister who refuses to go

(REUTERS)

Three of the last four prime ministers resigned when they decided the game was up. Tony Blair, David Cameron and Theresa May announced that they would be standing down as soon as a successor was chosen; and the fourth, Gordon Brown, was defeated in a general election.

Boris Johnson, on the other hand, does not look as if he will go quietly. He will have to be forced out. The theory that he would have to go if sufficiently senior cabinet ministers resigned has been tested and its flaw has been revealed: there are always other MPs who will fill cabinet posts.

Another theory seems to be being tested today, which is that if enough junior ministers and hangers-on resign, the prime minister will have to go. Constitutionally, this is not the case. It would become difficult to staff all government departments if ministers keep resigning at today’s rate, but all that really proves is that the modern ministeriat is vastly inflated in numbers and that the civil service can keep the machinery of government running perfectly well.

The only ways Johnson can be made to leave are if the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in his government, forcing a general election that he loses, or if he loses a vote of confidence of his own MPs.

That last remains the most likely way in which he will leave office, despite his winning a vote of confidence just a month ago. He didn’t win it by a convincing margin – 41 per cent of Conservative MPs voted against him – and almost the moment the result was announced, MPs started plotting a change to the rule that allows only one contest in any 12-month period.

That is now likely to happen, despite the strong feeling among more traditional-minded MPs that it would be unfair to change the rules in the middle of the game. Sir Graham Brady, the elected chair of the 1922 Committee representing Tory backbenchers, has argued against changing the rules in the past. Hence the suggestion of a compromise, which would be to allow a second vote of confidence if a higher threshold of letters from MPs is met. Instead of the 15 per cent trigger, requiring letters from 54 MPs, the threshold could be raised to 25 per cent, which would be 90 MPs.

Given the mood in the parliamentary Conservative Party, that threshold could easily be reached now. It feels as if Sir Graham’s sensibilities about fair play are likely to be swept aside in the needs of the moment: last month’s vote of confidence settled nothing, and the overwhelming sentiment among Tory MPs is that the leadership crisis has to be resolved and as soon as possible.

So the timetable of Johnson’s departure could be restarted next week. The executive of the 1922 Committee is likely to confirm today that elections for a new executive will be held on Wednesday next week. If the new executive were to meet on the evening of Wednesday 13 July, it could decide there and then to change the rules for a leadership contest. If there are already enough letters requesting a vote of confidence, it could be held on Thursday 14 July.

If Johnson lost the vote, as I expect he would, there might just be time to hold the MPs’ ballots for a leadership election before the House of Commons rises for the summer recess on 21 July.

To keep up to speed with all the latest opinions and comment sign up to our free weekly Voices Dispatches newsletter by clicking here

That is a tight timetable that meets the mood of the moment, but the prime minister will fight with any weapons to hand to try to delay it, and to put off a new vote of confidence until the Commons returns on 5 September. So the two main options are for Johnson to be defeated in the next two weeks, triggering an immediate leadership election, with a new prime minister taking office in September; or for him to be defeated in September, with a new prime minister elected after the party conference in October.

There is a third possibility, which is that Johnson survives, but that is now a diminishing chance. The brutal truth about politics is that a prime minister cannot continue if they fail to command the support of a majority of their MPs (Jeremy Corbyn tested that proposition in opposition, but the constitutional realities of government are different).

Today’s resignations – and they are still happening – make it painfully clear that Boris Johnson has lost the support of many of the ministers who supported him in the vote of confidence just one month ago. That majority of Tory MPs will bring his premiership to an end this month, or in September, but probably no later.