Red Wall Tories are nervous – which means trouble for Boris Johnson

The PM’s boosterism and optimism has encouraged people to think they can have it all – but his list of broken promises is becoming a dangerous narrative, writes Andrew Grice

Boris Johnson’s ‘levelling up’ agenda is at risk (PA)

Boris Johnson hoped that cracking down on MPs’ second jobs would win round the disgruntled Tory MPs in the north alienated by his woeful handling of the Owen Paterson situation. But he was sorely disappointed.

Johnson is losing friends in the north for several reasons. “The sleaze allegations are doing real damage,” one “red wall” Tory MP told me, adding: “‘One rule for us and another for everyone else’ has cut through.” These MPs are right to worry; Johnson’s appeal to former Labour voters was that he was “not a typical Tory”, as many described him. But the unlikely crusader against the establishment now looks like he has joined it.

Diluting his repeated promises on the northern part of HS2 and northern powerhouse rail was never going to “land well”, as the spin doctors put it.

But the timing of the announcement amid the sleaze controversy was awful, adding to the sense in Tory land he is losing the Midas touch that won a thumping 80-seat majority in 2019.

Johnson’s trademark cheeky smirk as he dismissed as “total rubbish” the charge of a broken promise on rail gave the game away. Keir Starmer’s new soundbite – “the joke isn’t funny anymore” – will strike a chord with many voters after Johnson’s terrible two weeks.

The scaled down blueprint is not his only breach of promise. The fine detail of another much-trumpeted plan – reforming social care – had a nasty sting in the tail for the north and Midlands. People there will pay a bigger share of their assets towards their social care costs than better-off people in the south because of relatively low property values. This will be likely to force some of them to sell their homes, the very opposite of what Johnson pledged. The Resolution Foundation think tank spotted a change in the small print on how the £86,000 cap on lifetime care bills will work which – surprise, surprise – Johnson did not reveal when he announced his plan in September.

On his marathon rail journey across the Midlands and the north to promote his rail proposals on Thursday, Johnson complained that people “want everything at once” but his boosterism and optimism has encouraged them to think they can have it all. Breaking Tony Blair's rule, he over-promised and under-delivered on both rail and social care and is now paying the price. Johnson’s own cakeism collided with the raw traditional power of the Treasury on both issues and lost. Johnson, too, wants “everything at once” but Rishi Sunak has delivered a painful reality check.

Another broken promise will shortly be arriving on platform three: 40 new hospitals by 2030, which is now in jeopardy. When Johnson tried to placate the 2019 intake of Tory MPs over drinks at Downing Street on Tuesday, some were more exercised about the government’s failure to “take back control” of immigration and asylum than sleaze. A growing perception that Brexit is not “done” is another chicken coming home to roost in No 10. Look out for a big push by Johnson on immigration in the hope of reassuring red wall voters and dividing Labour.

The list of broken or at least undelivered promises is a dangerous narrative when Johnson’s standing among his MPs is at an all-time low. His roll-call of the government’s achievements and some familiar jokes were greeted with virtual silence from many Tory backbenchers at their private meeting on Wednesday. The jokes are not funny anymore when the government is in trouble – something which is new and unnerving for the new generation of Tory MPs.

Johnson’s wider “levelling up” agenda is also at risk. It seems that the debate on what it means was not resolved by five hours of cabinet discussion last week. Is it a permanent “big state” approach to industrial and regional policy or about ensuring decent levels of public services across the country? How will success be measured? Will Johnson really devolve power, or will it remain based on handouts from Whitehall? Crucially, how can it be delivered without alienating the Tories’ traditional blue wall in the south? One insider admitted: “It’s a see-saw. We can’t allow the perception to take hold in the south that we are raising their taxes to hand money to the north. We have to get the right balance.”

Michael Gove will try to square the circle in a white paper soon. Johnson knows he needs to show tangible progress before the election to hold on to the red wall seats that will decide whether his party remains in power.

In 2019, the PM thanked people who had “lent” him their votes; his urgent task now is to prevent the loan being a very short-term one. But this week has illustrated how hard it is to turn headline-grabbing rhetoric into reality.

The biggest casualty of Johnson’s big promises might just turn out not to be Labour, but himself.