Inside Politics: Extraordinary times

Liz Truss to deliver first conference speech as she fights for her political life amid Tory division and infighting, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

Hello there, I’m Matt Mathers and welcome to The Independent’s Inside Politics newsletter.

U-turns are so much in vogue that even Elon Musk is getting in on the act. Put on your hard hats, batten down the hatches, sell everything you own and convert the cash into gold – Liz Truss is expected to warn of further disruption ahead as she doubles down on her debt-fuelled economic agenda.

Inside the bubble

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today:

Liz Truss will try to calm Tory nerves after a jittery party conference in Birmingham her closing speech to the event. There will also be speeches by Jake Berry, the party chair, and Nadhim Zahawi , the chancellor of the exchequer turned chancellor of Duchy of Lancaster.

Daily briefing

War of attrition

It is an understatement to say that Liz Truss has not got off to a good start in Downing Street. So far, the prime minister is failing on just about every metric by which you might judge a government. There has been a U-turn on the headline tax announcement in last month’s Budget; authority now appears to be draining away among Conservative MPs; by Truss’s own admission the “comms” have not been good, and the Tories continue to haemorrhage support to Labour, with a fresh poll published last night showing Keir Starmer’s party with a 38 per cent lead in the ‘red wall’ seats – a remarkable swing of 23 points in just two weeks.

It is against this troubling backdrop that the PM this morning puts the final touches to her conference speech, expected at around 11am. Godspeed to those tasked with helping to write it. Despite the sheer chaos of the past few weeks, Truss is expected to warn Tory members there will be more “disruption” ahead as she doubles down on the economic agenda outlined by her and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, who last night performed a double U-turn by going back on a commitment to bring forward (don’t worry, we’re as confused as you are) his “medium-term fiscal plan” aimed at calming the markets and giving confidence to lenders concerned about rising levels of government debt. Truss’s speech is likely to go down well with the diehards in the conference hall who put her in office, but it will be worth keeping an eye on the markets and the value of the pound as the day progresses.

The PM will also attempt to unite her party by hitting out against what she will claim is an anti-growth coalition, including Labour and the unions, who are holding the country back. “The scale of the challenge is immense,” she will say. “War in Europe for the first time in a generation. A more uncertain world in the aftermath of Covid. And a global economic crisis. That is why in Britain we need to do things differently.” Due to her disastrous start in office, Truss’s address now feels like a career-defining moment – one that could help to either sink or resuscitate her flailing premiership. From Brexit to the Covid pandemic and Putin’s war in Ukraine, we have become somewhat accustomed to extraordinary political events in recent years. And make no mistake, talk of make-or-break moments in relation to a PM who only a few weeks formed a government after meeting the new King is certainly not normal. But that is exactly where we are as Truss’s first party conference draws to a close.

Failure by the PM to inspire confidence in her speech and steady the ship is likely to further embolden back benchers and Big Beast Tories opposed to her leadership, such as Michael Gove, the former levelling up secretary, who are smelling blood following the 180 degrees tailspin on abolishing the 45p rate for those earning more than £150,000 (Gove was said to have led the charge). Meanwhile Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary – renowned for keeping a spreadsheet categorizing MPs support for the leader – has already fired a warning shot across Truss’s bows, telling her she has 10 days to turn things around.

All of this comes amid another row and potential U-turn on welfare policy that has overshadowed this year’s conference, with cabinet minister and onetime leadership contender – Penny Mordaunt – appearing to freelance yesterday by saying that benefits should rise in line with inflation, as Truss and Kwarteng consider linking the rise to wages, which experts warn would be an effective cut for families struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Once a PM has lost their authority it is very difficult to get it back. Just ask Boris Johnson. Inside Politics wrote during the Conservative leadership campaign that Truss had a far smaller majority than the parliamentary numbers suggested, due to the large number of MPs who backed Sunak, the former chancellor. Many MPs are now questioning how long Truss can last in office as the rebel alliance against her builds. The infighting over benefits looks like the second front in what is shaping up to be a long war of attrition.

(PA)

Culture wars latest

Suella Braverman has been making plenty of headlines herself throughout the Tory Party conference, telling a fringe event yesterday that the aforementioned Gove and other MPs “staged a coup” against Truss with their opposition to the plan to abolish the top rate of tax for the rich.

The home secretary and culture warrior in chief also railed against what she claimed was a “benefit street” culture in Britain, criticising hard-working Britons who do the right thing by going to work but apparently have the audacity to “choose” to top up their wages with working tax credits. How dare they.

Not content with all of that, Braverman also said that modern slavery laws are being abused to the extent that they are “derailing the UK’s policy on illegal migration” - a claim that has been challenged by a watchdog.

In her Conservative Party conference speech, Braverman said that some Albanian migrants crossing the English Channel were claiming protection but “their claims of being trafficked are lies”. She added: “The hard truth is that our modern slavery laws are being abused by people gaming the system. We’ve seen a 450 per cent increase in modern slavery claims since 2014.”

But Dame Sara Thornton, the UK’s former Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner, said that the number of referrals had risen since 2014 because of work by the Home Office, police and authorities to spot victims.

“This is a hidden crime and we have got a lot better at identifying victims,” the former police chief told The Independent. “There has been a lot of work done by police forces, local authorities, Border Force and Immigration Enforcement to know what the signs are.“I don’t know where the evidence for claiming the rise is because of abuse has come from.”

Today’s cartoon

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(Dave Brown)

On the record

In a broadcast interview yesterday, Truss refuses to give explicit backing to Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, when asked if she trusts him.

“I work very very closely with my chancellor. We are very focused on getting the economy growing and that’s what people in Britain want. We are facing difficult economic times, we are seeing rising interest rates around the world, very serious issues with energy prices and inflation.”

From the Twitterati

George Eaton, New Statesman senior editor, points out another potential flaw in Trussonomics.

“People seem to have forgotten that Truss has also pledged to *increase* defence spending from 2% to 3% of GDP (at least £50bn extra). Means more borrowing or spending cuts elsewhere.”

Essential reading

• John Rentoul, The Independent: No one can hold the Tory coalition together
• Sean O’Grady, The Independent: There will be no ‘delivery’ on migration, whatever Suella Braverman says
• Rachel Wearmouth, The New Statesman: What does Michael Gove want?
• Eliot A Cohen: Russia’s nuclear bluster is a sign of panic

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