Inside Politics: No 10 denies any Brexit breakthrough on fish

EU sources have talked up progress on access to British waters – but Downing Street has pushed back against the claims, writes Adam Forrest

EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier (Reuters)

I’m not sure even the soothing tones of Peter Alliss – the late, legendary “voice of golf” – could calm frayed nerves at Westminster. One of Alliss’s great lines seems to apply well to Boris Johnson and the current Brexit impasse: “He used to fairly indecisive, but now he’s not so certain.” Does our prime minister know what will happen next? How badly does he want a trade agreement with the EU? How much is he prepared to compromise? We’re now approaching the final green on the final hole on the final round – and no-one has a clue whether a deal will be done.

 

Inside the bubble

 

Our political editor Andrew Woodcock on what to look out for today:

The timing could not be worse. As trade talks continue in Brussels today, Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill returns from the Lords to the Commons – where the government is set to add those offending, international law breaking-clauses back in and try to push it through this evening. Will it cause tensions to rise with the EU? Yes, though they couldn’t get much higher at the moment.

 

Daily briefing

 

TUMBLING DICE: So, what hope of a deal? EU sources say an agreement on fishing rights is close after progress on Sunday, various reports this morning suggest – but Downing Street has been pushing back against the idea. “There’s no breakthrough on fish,” said one No 10 official. According The Telegraph, the UK is prepared to see a longer transition for European vessels of up to five years access – but Brussels would have to hand back at least 50 per cent of its quotas (much more than the 18 per cent currently on offer). Meanwhile, EU leaders have agreed to weaken demands on level playing field rules, one Brussels diplomatic source told The Times. Boris Johnson and Ursula Von der Leyen will speak again on Monday evening. “This is the final throw of the dice,” said one UK government official, while another said: “If we are still talking on Tuesday, it will be a good sign, because it will mean we are on the right path and a deal is doable.” The odds of success? “My gut instinct is that it is 50-50 right now,” said Irish premier Micheal Martin.

 

WORSE COMES TO WORST: The supply of medicines could be cut to as little as 60 per cent for three months if there’s no deal, leaked government documents have revealed. The latest, 34-page “worst case scenario” no-deal analysis – shared with ITV – also warns of civil unrest, local fuel disruption and rising food prices. Farmers are getting very worried. National Farmers’ Union president Minette Batters said a no-deal Brexit would see 85 per cent tariffs imposed on British beef and 62 per cent on lamb – effectively pricing UK products out of the export market. The Road Haulage Association offered a new warning that, deal or no deal, a period of “significant disruption” could last “six to 12 months.” It comes as Unite boss Len McCluskey and Labour Keir Starmer finally agree on something – the party should vote for a Brexit deal if one emerges. “The idea of an abstention, to me, would be completely wrong … let’s get Brexit done and out of the way,” said the union chief.

 

PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES: The Covid vaccine will get here, by hook or by crook, says the head of the UK’s medicines regulator. Dr June Raine said officials were “fully prepared for any possible outcome” in the Brexit talks. It may take the armed forces to ensure a steady supply. Tens of millions of doses manufactured in Belgium could be flown in by military aircraft to avoid disruption at ports, according to The Observer. The news comes as staff at Croydon University Hospital in south London were seen taking delivery of the first shipment of the Pfizer jab, with first vaccinations set to begin on Tuesday. Health secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday that the fast-track approval meant restrictions might be relaxed before the end of March. It also emerged that the Queen is set to receive the vaccine “within weeks” and encourage others to do the same. But The Mail on Sunday claimed Her Majesty will “wait in line” for her jab, rather than expect to get preferential treatment.

 

PC GONE MAD: You’d think everyone would be a bit too stressed out for culture war nonsense. Not so Tory MP Esther McVey. The former minister has accused the UK’s biggest children’s charity of “sowing the seeds of guilt” by discussing racial inequality. She warned Barnardo’s not to become “another charity … obsessed with political correctness and virtue signalling”. A group of 12 Tory MPs have written to Barnardo’s to express their “disappointment” over a blog post which said it was important to teach children to become “actively anti-racist through their actions.” It comes as environment secretary George Eustice described Black Lives Matter as a “political movement” – claiming it different aims from the majority of people who support racial equality. The minister also declined to condemn the Millwall fans who booed their own players for taking the knee, saying the ways people choose to express their views “should always be respected”.

 

UP THE GARDEN PATH: The idea that BLM is too political was a Nigel Farage taking points a few months ago. Between that and the fact we’re on the verge of crashing out of the EU you think he’d be happy. But Nigel always finds something to be angry about. This time it’s cycle paths. Farage has vowed to field candidates against every single councillor who backs the government’s new green push, lashing out at the £250m spent on cycle paths and other “trendy” environmental projects. “Do the councils responsible realise the sheer hatred that their rules and regulations inspire among taxpayers?” Farage may be pleased to hear that the government has ordered an independent review of the Human Rights Act. The former Court of Appeal judge Sir Peter Gross has been appointed to lead the process. According to an excited report in The Telegraph, it could mean judges’ ability to “block deportations of foreign criminals” could be restricted.

 

THE UNMASKED MAN: Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani has tested positive for Covid. “Get better soon Rudy, we will carry on!!!” said the outgoing president. The diagnosis has prompted the Arizona state legislature to close down for a week, after Giuliani spent several hours there attempting to persuade them to overturn the 2020 election results. Only a few days ago the Trump loyalist was seen asking a witness at a committee hearing to take off her face mask. It follows a rally held by Trump in Georgia at the weekend described as “deranged”, at which thousands of attendees were pictured not wearing face masks. Meanwhile, large parts of California are imposing a new lockdown to deal with a surge in Covid cases. The strict stay-at-home order affects around 85 per cent of the state’s population. Governor Gavin Newsom said action was needed to prevent the hospital system from “being overwhelmed”.

 

On the record

 

“I think we probably are now in the final few days in terms of deciding whether there can be an agreement.”

George Eustice sets the scene for this week.

 

From the Twitterati

 

“George Eustice just admitted on Marr - Food prices will rise - There will be shortages - The promise to farmers might not be kept - Nor the promise to fishermen - Pet passports will no longer be sufficient - Nor will driving licenses - No answer on healthcare.”

Marina Purkiss is amazed at how many downsides Brexit will bring…

 

“People bang on about the downsides to a no deal Brexit but what about the upsides, sitting in a cold lorry park with a Spam sandwich and a blue passport.”

…while Dave MacLadd says things aren’t all bad.

 

Essential reading

 

John Rentoul, The Independent: Boris Johnson will decide exactly when the next election is held

 

Andrew Grice, The Independent: Sunshine has returned to Whitehall after Dominic Cummings’ exit

 

Katy Balls, The Spectator: Boris Johnson has one last throw of the dice in Brexit talks

 

John Harwood, CNN: Trump’s hold over the Republicans is his greatest feat of wizardry

 

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