Inside Politics: Sunak to claim economy ‘fit for new age of optimism’ as Covid plan C discussed

Chancellor expected to invest surplus funds in public services, and government science adviser admits plan C Covid plan has been discussed despite minister’s previous claims, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

Rishi Sunak will later this morning pose outside No 11 Downing Street with his red box before making the short trip over to the Commons to deliver the Budget, where he will sketch out a rosier economic outlook than economists had predicted coming out of Covid lockdowns. Britain’s speedier-than-expected recovery has left the chancellor with some money to play with and he is expected to announce that some surplus funds will be invested in public services. He will vow to reduce borrowing and attempt to draw a line under pandemic levels of spending, tout the UK as a high-skill, high-wage economy “fit for a new age of optimism”. But business owners, facing increasing costs due to the supply chain crisis, and the millions of families across the UK gripped by a cost of living squeeze, could be forgiven for feeling less hopeful about the future.

Inside the bubble

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today:

For once, prime minister’s questions will be overshadowed by what follows -- Rishi Sunak’s much-trailed Budget. Keir Starmer will have the toughest job of the day as he must make an immediate response. All eyes will also be on whether Tory MPs take Sajid Javid’s advice and wear a mask.

Ministers quizzed by select committees include the international trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan (on Cop26); universities minister Michelle Donelan (pandemic recovery) and Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis (the legacy of the troubles). The defence secretary Ben Wallace will be questioned by a Lords committee on the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Coming up:

–Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Bridget Phillipson on Sky News at 8.05am

– Tory MP Robert Jenrick on talkRADIO at 8.33am

Daily Briefing

SLIDE AWAY: The chancellor, who cut a relaxed figure in his pre-Budget snaps last night, dressed in sliders and a sweatshirt, has already made several major announcements on the minimum wage, public sector pay, health and transport, although today we will get some more meat on the bone of those plans and find out exactly how much of the money pledged is new and how much is creative accounting by Treasury aides. Will there be another rabbit to come out of chancellor’s hat? If so, Sunak’s team has kept it well wrapped up. We’ll have to wait until lunchtime to find out.

GREEN BOX: Campaigners have urged Sunak to put the climate at the heart of his agenda and end suspicions he is resisting the switch to net zero on cost grounds. With just days to go until the Cop26 summit begins, the Green Alliance group said an extra £21bn of government investment is needed each year through to 2024 to “get on track to net zero” and stimulate private sector finance. Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, told The Independent more investment is needed now to prevent far greater costs down the line.

HER MAJESTY: Will not see you at Cop26. Boris Johnson’s hosting of the crucial climate summit next week was dealt another blow last night with the news that the Queen is no longer attending, meaning he’ll be without the soft power of the monarch as he attempts to herd cats and cajole world leaders into setting new climate targets, improving on those commitments set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Palace aides confirmed Her Majesty, 95, has been advised to get more rest following a recent overnight hospital stay. She will, however, address delegates via a recorded video message. “Following advice to rest, The Queen has been undertaking light duties at Windsor Castle. “Her Majesty has regretfully decided that she will no longer travel to Glasgow to attend the evening reception of Cop26 on Monday, 1 November,” a palace spokesman said. “Her Majesty is disappointed not to attend the reception but will deliver an address to the assembled delegates via a recorded video message.”

MIND THE GAP: The Queen’s cancellation came on a day when another damning climate report should have focused minds ahead of the critical talks in Glasgow. Just a day after it was revealed that levels of planet-warming greenhouse gases recorded in the earth’s atmosphere reached record levels last year despite lockdowns in countries around the world, a United Nations Emissions Gap report has found countries’ updated “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs – which set out the level of carbon emissions cuts they are planning – only take a further 7.5 per cent off projected global emissions for 2030, while cuts of 55 per cent are needed to meet the 1.5C Paris goal. That means the current plans would need to have seven times the level of ambition to remain under that limit.

EASY AS A, B...C? First, they weren’t but now they are. Ministers are said to be considering proposals for Covid plan C. A senior scientific adviser to the government has admitted that the idea of the so-called ‘plan C’ restrictions has been discussed should the surge in Covid cases get worse. Ministers had denied reports that the government is preparing plan C curbs that would ban the mixing of households in England this winter if cases continued to rise. But Prof Lucy Chappell, chief scientific adviser to the Department of Health and Social Care, told a parliamentary committee on Tuesday that further measures beyond plan B had been “proposed”. Asked by MPs if there was a plan C in government, Prof Chappell said: “It has been proposed. The name has been mentioned. It is not being extensively worked up ... People have used the phrase.” The revelation came as the UK recorded its highest daily death toll since March.

DO AS I SAY: Not as I do, is once again the message emanating from the corridors of power after the Commons updated its guidance on face masks to state that everyone in parliament must to wear one...except MPs. Commons authorities said all staff, visitors, contractors and press must cover their faces to combat the spread of Covid. But it remains up to individual MPs to decide whether to follow suit and many Tory MPs have not done so. Sajid Javid, the health secretary has said he will wear a mask for the Budget later, which is sure to be jam-packed, despite what business minister Paul Scully says.

TURD READING PREVENTED: Ministers have bowed to pressure in a row to introduce tougher action against water companies dumping untreated sewage into rivers. In an eleventh-hour compromise ahead of a Lords vote, it was announced a new “legal duty” would be introduced to ensure firms “secure a progressive reduction in the adverse impacts of sewage discharges” from storm overflows.It comes after the government provoked fury from environmental campaigners and a social media backlash for voting down an amendment last week, which had been passed by peers seeking more severe action against pumping raw sewage into rivers and seas.

On the record

“To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, we have eight years to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions: eight years to make the plans, put in place the policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts. The clock is ticking loudly.”

Executive director of Unep Inger Andersen on report showing national plans to cut carbon are way off what’s needed.

From the Twitterati

“Slip-sliding awaayyyyy. @RishiSunak goes for the German tourist/Lib Dem socksnsandals look. Almost has a ‘WFH’ feel to it…”

i columnist Paul Waugh on Sunak’s pre-Budget outfit.

Essential reading

• Vince Cable, The Independent: Rishi Sunak faces a tough choice over his Budget – but turning towards austerity is a mistake
• Marie Le Conte, The Independent: I cannot face another lockdown – but what if plan B isn’t enough?
• Sarah Manavis, The New Statesman: Why did YouTube delete Novara Media’s channel?
• Alex Massie, The Times: Sidelining Nicola Sturgeon only damages the Union

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