Tough Russia sanctions would hurt other nations in Europe too – are politicians willing to take the pain?

Anything that would disrupt Russian imports of oil and gas is politically difficult for western leaders already under pressure, says Ben Chapman

UK sanctions unveiled on Tuesday were labelled ‘feeble’ by MPs (AP)

European leaders may find it difficult to be as tough as they want on Vladimir Putin after he ordered troops into Ukraine.

Targeting the Russian economy means limiting its ability to sell oil and gas, two vital commodities that Europe is dependent on its eastern neighbour for.

Disruption would likely mean even higher inflation and a further fall in living standards in Europe. With the cost of living already rising at its fastest rate in decades, it is questionable how likely politicians in Paris, Berlin and London are to do anything that will squeeze supplies and push up prices even more.

“Personally, I doubt that you will find a consensus within the EU,” said Oksana Antonenko Director of global political risk at Control Risks, a consultancy.

“To stop imports of Russian oil and gas is just, in my view, is impossible to imagine. But it is possible to imagine that Russia will suspend supply of gas for Europe.

“They’ve done that before, so the disruption is possible. If that is to happen, I think we will see increased prices for sure.”

She added that “all the indications” were that the EU would follow the UK line and target Kremlin-linked banks.

It’s unclear how much Putin will care. He has previously shrugged off sanctions which hurt the Russian people but do little to disrupt his club of plutocrats.

UK and EU governments are “not going to be willing to take the pain that is required” to implement major economic sanctions, said Dan Arenson, associate director at political risk consultancy GPW.

“In practice we are not going to ruin our economy over this.”

However, if Putin were to launch a full-scale invasion then “that would trigger far more comprehensive, far more sweeping sanctions,” said Arenson.

We are clearly no there yet. The UK government’s first attempt at sanctions targeted only five relatively small banks and three individuals, all of which have already been sanctioned previously by the US or EU.

The measures were dismissed as “feeble” by MPs within moments of being announced by the prime minister.

To be fair to Boris Johnson, this was only the “first barrage” against Putin. It would be unwise to use up all of our firepower at once.

But Tom Tugendhat, the Tory chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee (someone who ought to be well-versed in such matters), urged the government to go “much further and much faster.”

As well as hitting major Russian banks and three individuals, the government has also vowed to sanction members of the Russian parliament who voted to recognise the independence of separatist areas of Ukraine.

However, much tougher measures are likely to be needed in order to influence Moscow.