There can be no denying it now – the government is no longer following the science over Covid

In waiting for the unknown to turn into the known, precious time is being wasted in bringing a rapidly deteriorating situation under control, writes Samuel Lovett

Boris Johnson said the arguments for imposing measures were ‘very, very finely balanced’ (AFP via Getty Images)

After a weekend of speculation, leaked plans, and Westminster gossip, the government has opted to stick with the status quo for the time being. Yet much like at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and then last winter, the decision to do so flies in the face of the data and modelling presented to ministers.

The scientists’ warnings have been clear: without the immediate imposition of further restrictions we can expect millions of people to become infected in the coming weeks, leading to intense hospital pressures and, potentially, thousands of deaths.

The government’s SPI-M-O group of experts, which reports to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said that “more stringent measures” will be needed to tackle the rising Omicron wave.

However, Boris Johnson and his ministers see it differently. For now, there are too many “uncertainties” in the data to justify acting. Instead, the government wants more time to determine the rate at which infection turns to hospitalisation, the severity of illness, and the effectiveness of the boosters in fighting off Omicron.

We have been here before. More dither and delay. In waiting for the unknown to turn into the known, the government is wasting precious time in bringing a rapidly deteriorating situation under control.

The reactive stance, rather than the pro-active one, risks burdening the population with a significant wave of disease - one that will prove debilitating for many and fatal for some, while also bringing large segments of the economy to a halt due to staff absences.

“There are several things we don’t know [about Omicron], but all the things that we do know, are bad,” Professor Chris Whitty said last week.

Indeed, the warning signs are there to see. In London – the epicentre of the rising Omicron wave – hospitalisations are now on their way up, breaking rank with the wider trends seen across the UK.

One trust in the capital has already told staff it may have to cancel “some or much” of its planned operations in January to cope with the coming Covid surge. Other trusts outside of London have said they are experiencing “significant pressures”, even before Omicron makes its impact felt.

For the vast majority of people, the vaccines and boosters will continue to offer protection against symptomatic disease and severe illness. But for the millions of individuals who remain unvaccinated or vulnerable to infection, Omicron presents a serious challenge.

These will be the people who further fill up hospital beds and intensive care units, bringing the NHS back to brink.

Yet, as the storm clouds gather, the government is adamant that now is not the time to act. Instead, it has urged to the public to continue “exercising caution” – a get-out-of-jail card that allows ministers to shirk responsibility and place blame on the people when things go bad from to worse.

The prime minister said the arguments for imposing measures were “very, very finely balanced” and refused to rule out any new restrictions, raising the possibility that we could still see some form of lockdown – or “circuit-breaker” – on the other side of Christmas. By then, it may be too late.

Either way, there can be no denying it now: the government is no longer following the science. It has chosen to carve out its own path through the troubles ahead.