What would a Boris Johnson exit mean for the UK’s climate action and net zero targets?

It is clear that if we are to tackle the climate crisis, the UK needs to accelerate its plans, says Harry Cockburn

Turbulent times: the prime minister visits a wind farm (PA)

Boris Johnson’s position is under threat as people across the country, and many of his own party’s MPs express their anger over Partygate. But where would a Johnson exit leave the UK on climate issues?

Internationally, the UK has had a politically enviable headstart on recent climate developments – from being the first country in the world to introduce a legally binding net zero target for 2050 and pushing for the closure of coal power stations to hosting the Cop26 climate summit.

While Johnson has a decidedly shaky history when it comes to championing the environment, for example, claiming in 2013 that “wind farms couldn’t pull the skin off a rice pudding”, in recent years, he has changed his tune, and is now among the Conservative Party’s more pro-environment politicians.

There are mounting concerns that any momentum the UK still has on reducing emissions and introducing policies to improve renewable energy, active travel and restoring biodiversity could potentially be lost under a new leader.

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told The Independent: “A successor to Boris Johnson would still be bound by the Climate Change Act, and the target of net zero emissions by 2050. It is also worth noting that the delivery of net zero was an explicit pledge in the 2019 Conservative election manifesto. Mr Johnson has made the correct assessment that climate action also offers huge economic opportunities across the UK.”

But he warned: “It is not clear how many other senior members of the Conservative Party share this understanding, and whether they will ignore the false claims of a tiny but noisy cabal that there is a trade-off between climate action and economic growth. Mr Johnson’s government has still not put in place the many domestic policies required to put the UK on a pathway to net zero emissions, and any successor would be under immediate pressure to put together a credible programme to deliver on the target.”

The most prominent runners and riders should the prime minister be forced out of his post include Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel, Kwasi Kwarteng and Sajid Javid.

None of them have a strong record of campaigning on environmental issues, and the frontrunners – widely regarded as Truss and Sunak – have even recently sought to distance themselves from Johnson’s efforts to cast himself as a green Tory.

In September, Truss, along with business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, decided to “drop both of the climate asks”, as they put it, in order to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Australia, leaked emails revealed.

The following month, when Rishi Sunak delivered his budget in the run up to Cop26, the chancellor sparked outrage at his apparent lack of concern for the climate, failing to mention it in his speech and instead announcing policies to cut taxes on short haul flights and champagne and lengthening the freeze on fuel duty for drivers.

The home secretary, Priti Patel, has recently tuned her ire against environmental protests, pursuing increasingly draconian measures to halt their activities. She has previously described Extinction Rebellion as “eco-crusaders turned criminals” and Insulate Britain activists as “extremists”. In October she warned protesters who blocked motorways they could face unlimited fines and up to six months in jail.

Hunt, Javid and Kwarteng have tended to be more welcoming to Conservative climate action, and all publicly voiced their commitment to hitting net zero during Theresa May and Johnson’s administrations.

Hunt made the climate a key element of his failed leadership bid when he was up against Johnson. As chancellor, Javid promised to prioritise the environment and described protecting nature as a core Conservative value, but also announced a £25bn road building programme in his 2019 Budget, which was then expanded to £27bn when Sunak took command of the Treasury.

Meanwhile Kwarteng, a former environment minister and now business and energy secretary, has insisted that greening the economy won’t cost people or businesses more, and has even blamed unfettered capitalism for taking a toll on the environment. Kwarteng was also the minister who in 2020 ruled out any future fracking, and also said there were “compelling reasons” not to open a controversial new coal mine in Cumbria. But he has also recently made headlines for dining with oil executives to “encourage drilling” in the North Sea just days after Cop26 finished.

If the prime minister does go, his successor will also have to contend with a small but increasingly vocal group of climate-sceptic backbenchers.

The Net Zero Scrutiny Group contains around 20 Conservative MP who have expressed concerns about the costs to the public and businesses of government plans to hit net zero.

It is worth noting that while Johnson has routinely talked up his government’s green credentials, there remain gaping holes, inconsistencies and illogical gaps in existing policy to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises. His administration has presided over a dreadful record on tree planting, and on rivers and sea pollution and pesticide usage. His government cut the green homes grant which would have provided insulation reducing energy bills and fossil fuel usage, and there has been delayed action to tackle toxic air. Meanwhile he has failed to oppose new fossil fuel drilling, a huge new road building programme and a new deep coal mine.

Voters should not be under the illusion that Johnson has been an uncontested environmental champion, and while things could potentially get worse, true climate leadership is still yet to emerge in the UK.