The entire world is watching this election – and with good reason

From Beijing to Brasilia, so much depends on what happens next. Andrew Buncombe considers the impact of Trump’s foreign policy and wonders what Biden has in store for the US and beyond

Biden and Trump during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on 22 October (AFP via Getty)

When you replay the speech now, it feels like an age ago. And yet what still rings through, as clear and stridently as it did then, was that Donald Trump’s foreign policy would be about promoting what he saw as the interests of his allies, and supporters, and his nation. It would be a foreign policy that very clearly put America first.

“I will return us to a timeless principle. Always put the interest of the American people and American security above all else,” Trump said at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington DC, where Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak was among the foreign diplomats listening.

“[I will] develop a new foreign policy direction for our country, one that replaces randomness with purpose, ideology with strategy, and chaos with peace.”

To be sure, American foreign policy has always put front and centre what it believes are its own interests. But on that day in April 2016, for a world both accustomed, and sometimes irritated, by the US’s forward leaning policy, there was something of a shock at the the prospect of more isolationist, disengaged superpower.

This was something already in progress under Barack Obama, who was desperate to bring home US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump’s words that spring day, as it became clear he was set to secure the Republican nomination, took it several stages further.

Perhaps most startling for the US’s European allies was his condemnation of Nato as “outdated”.

“We have spent trillions of dollars over time — on planes, missiles, ships, equipment — building up our military to provide a strong defence for Europe and Asia,” he said.

“The countries we are defending must pay for the cost of this defence and, if not, the US must be prepared to let these countries defend themselves.”

He also said he wanted to build new relationships with China and Russia. “Common sense says this cycle of hostility must end. Some say the Russians won’t be reasonable. I intend to find out.”

In the frenzy that proceeds every US election, the agenda invariably dominated by domestic issues, and the coronavirus pandemic leaving many feeling isolated and inward looking, Trump’s foreign policy has received only moderate scrutiny as Americans have sought to pick their next leader.

This is unfortunate. As with every administration, the decisions taken in Washington DC can impact the entire world.

One area is which there has been broad support for the president’s actions is in confronting China. Despite saying he wanted a new relationship with Beijing, he has engaged in a trade war, imposed tariffs and raised a red flag over Chinese firms, operating in the US and internationally.

The tariffs have in reality hurt both nations. Yet, many farmers hurt by the tariffs’s impacts, have supported Trump’s actions. It may be short-term pain, they argue, but they believe it will benefit them in the years ahead.

When The Independent visited soy bean farmers in Missouri in the spring of 2018, a number said they planned to vote for Mr Trump again. One farmer in his 40s, who asked to identified by his first name, Adam, said: “I think we have been run over on trade. I think people play the game harder than we do.”

It is not just on trade, Trump has pressed China. He has also sought to limit its influence in the South China Sea, supported Taiwan in a fashion that has earned him many supporters there, and just last week the White House told Congress it was approving plans for a $2.4bn sale of Harpoon missile systems to the island nation.

When Trump became infected with coronavirus there was a strong “get well soon” message delivered from the Taiwan’s speaker, You Si-kun. “I want to take this opportunity to wish him a speedy recovery, so he can continue to lead the free world in resisting the Chinese communists’ outrages,” she said.

The issue of recognising Jerusalem was of particular importance to religious conservatives who believe it will help bring about the so-called rapture

Such has been the force of Trump’s support for Taiwan, reports suggest there is now anxiety at the highest level of the Taiwanese government of a more conciliatory US approach to China should Joe Biden win the election.

Trump also notably withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-country trade agreement signed by Barack. He also renegotiated NAFTA, as he said he would, to the delight of many fans.

But for a section of supporters of Trump, who also made history by becoming the first sitting US president to meet with a leader of North Korea, and who announced a travel ban in six majority nations days after being inaugurated, perhaps his most significant foreign policy has been in the Middle East.

In May 2018, the US moved its Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv and recognised Jerusalem as its official capital, breaking with decades of international diplomacy that said the status of the capital – claimed by Palestinians and Israel – should be part of a final peace settlement.

The Palestinians complained but few in Washington listened. While US administrations of both main parties have had close ties to Israel, the issue of recognising Jerusalem was of particular importance to religious conservatives who believe it will help bring about the so-called rapture, an event in which they believe all Christians, living and dead, will join with god.

Whatever one may make of this, it is something Trump regularly boasts of at his rallies, and cited by some supporters as a major reason for voting for him. In September, the president announced the US had helped broker a peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE was the third Arab country to have normal diplomatic relations with Israel along with Egypt and Jordan. A month later Bahrain joined the group.

Many observers believe Saudi Arabia, which Trump has also backed unquestionably even during crises such as the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, may also broker a deal with Israel, but only after King Salman dies.

“Do you think sleepy Joe could have made this deal, Bibi?" Trump said in a phone call with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office. “Sleepy Joe…Do you think he would have made this deal somehow? I don't think so.”

Trump has praised authoritarian strong men such as India’s Narendra Modi, whom he hosted to the White House, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. He said he believed Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s insistence that Moscow did not interfere in the 2016 election, despite the conclusions of his own intelligence agencies. (He later claimed he said the opposite.)

He sought to oust Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela, pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, imposed debilitating sanctions on Tehran, and withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris Accord, having repeatedly said he does not believe in the climate change crisis. In the US, he has overturned numerous environmental regulations introduced by Barack Obama.

He also oversaw an operation that resulted in the death of Isis leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, backed a military operation to recapture it’s so-called caliphate, and ordered the assassination of Iranian military leader, Qasem Soleimani, claiming controversially, he was plotting terror attacks on US targets. “We caught him in the act and terminated him,” Trump said in a televised address in January. “His reign of terror is over.”

How would Joe Biden be different? Joe Biden’s approach would be considerably different to that of Trump in several ways.

To start with, Biden would rejoin the multi-nation Iran Nuclear Deal. “If Tehran returns to compliance with the deal, President Biden would re-enter the agreement, using hard-nosed diplomacy and support from our allies to strengthen and extend it, while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities,” Biden says on his website.

Another major policy difference would be in regard to recognising the reality of the climate crisis, rejoining the Paris Accord

“The Biden administration will rejoin the Paris Climate Accord on day one and lead a major diplomatic push to raise the ambitions of countries’ climate targets,” his website says.

Like other Democrats he would also end the so-called global gag rule, which prevents money from going to international NGOs that even talk about abortion.

Biden has said he would organise a “Summit for Democracy” to renew the spirit and shared purpose of the nations of the free world. His website says: “President Biden will bring together the world’s democracies to strengthen our democratic institutions, honestly confront the challenge of nations that are backsliding, and forge a common agenda to address threats to our common values.”

Equally as important as his specific policy differences would be the former vice-president’s approach to getting things done.has repeatedly said he would tackle challenges such as China’s growing influence as part of a multilateral effort, and similarly so with North Korea.

Equally as important as his specific policy differences would be the former vice-president’s approach to getting things done. He has repeatedly said he would tackle challenges such as China’s growing influence as part of a multilateral effort, and similarly so with North Korea.

He would seek to rebuild relationships with nations such aa Germany and France. He often tells his supporters that he knows many of the world’s leaders, having dealt with them as Obama’s vice-president.

He also says he would seek to improve the US’s international image, which he says has been damaged by failing to work with its traditional allies.

In an article published this summer in Foreign Policy he wrote: “If we continue his abdication of that responsibility, then one of two things will happen: either someone else will take the United States’ place, but not in a way that advances our interests and values, or no one will, and chaos will ensue. Either way, that’s not good for America.”

Biden believes he could help America’s fortunes by being a less controversial leader.

Speaking at an event in Detroit, Michigan, over the weekend with former president Barack Obama, Biden said having him on stage “reminds us we can have a president with character, a president respected around the world. A president our kids could look up to.”

“[Donald Trump] likes to portrays himself as a tough guy, a macho man,” he continued.

“But when’s the last time you saw the president of the United States literally being laughed at by world leaders when he spoke at the United Nations? When’s the last time you saw a president of the United States being openly mocked by our allies at a Nato conference?”