No government ever gets a ‘clear run’ – to expect this is delusional

Events are the water a politician swims in. Their ability to respond effectively to the unexpected is – rightly – one of the key measures on which they are judged, writes Andrew Woodcock

‘It has been one crisis after another,’ complained cabinet minister Simon Clarke (EPA)

To the many excuses politicians have offered for not achieving what they promised, cabinet minister Simon Clarke has added an intriguing new one.

Quizzed by ITV’s political editor Robert Peston over why it was that 12 years of Tory governments promising low taxes, high growth and prudent finances had ended with the highest taxes in generations, massive debt and recession, the levelling up secretary was very clear about what was to blame.

“No Conservative government has had a clear run at events over the entire course of the last decade,” he said. “It has been one crisis after another.”

At one level, there is clearly some truth in the idea that the last few years have seen some extraordinary challenges for government – the turmoil of Brexit, followed almost immediately by the Covid pandemic, with the Ukraine war and soaring energy prices hot on its heels.

But what was it Harold Macmillan said when asked what was the biggest difficulty for a prime minister? “Events, dear boy, events.”

Events are the water a politician swims in. Their ability to respond effectively to the unexpected is – rightly – one of the key measures on which they are judged. Any PM expecting to get a “clear run” of untroubled times during which they can concentrate on rolling out their programme is, frankly, delusional.

What former administration has not had crises to deal with? Margaret Thatcher had IRA terrorism, strikes and the Falklands, John Major had war in Kuwait. Tony Blair had the 9/11 terror attacks, followed by war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the 2005 bombings in London; Gordon Brown had the near-collapse of the world’s financial system caused by reckless bankers in 2007-08.

In every case, the question is not “how much better would they have fared without these interruptions?” but “were they to blame and how did they cope?”

If anything, the early years of Tory-led government after 2010 were comparatively calm. Yes, there were riots in 2011 and war in Syria sparking an exodus of refugees, but David Cameron’s biggest crisis was self-inflicted, in the form of Brexit.

In many ways, Brexit was an object lesson in the need for politicians always to remember that the unexpected is lurking around the corner. Cameron went into the referendum largely for party management reasons, hoping to see off the irritants of the anti-EU right without thinking through the scale of the crisis he would unleash if his gamble failed as it did.

Backers of Brexit assumed that they would have time and space to fashion their perfect outcome, with little thought given to the prospect that the demolition of the UK’s trading arrangements and political cooperation with its closest allies would coincide with global economic turmoil and war.

There are crises that are unpredictable, but there are also crises that are the result of choices. Any politician deciding to embark on constitutional upheaval on the scale of Brexit has to remember that their plans may well unfold against the backdrop of wholly unforeseen mayhem of other kinds.

And as well as Macmillan, they should also keep in mind that other sage, Mike Tyson, who might have been discussing politics when he said: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

Yours,

Andrew Woodcock

Political editor