What would be a mandate for another Scottish independence referendum?

If nationalist parties win a narrow majority of the votes in Scotland on 6 May, that hardly constitutes the ‘settled will’ of the Scottish people, writes John Rentoul

‘Quite agree, Nicola: the goalposts are now over there’ (PA)

Alex Salmond’s return to Scottish politics has clarified one thing: that claiming a mandate for another independence referendum is more complicated than it seems. His attempt to “cheat” the electoral system (Nicola Sturgeon’s word, not mine) to produce an artificial majority in the Scottish parliament for a second referendum has destroyed the idea that a majority of MSPs – 65 out of 129 – is enough.

The nationalists would now have to be sure that those MSPs represented more than 50 per cent of the voters. At the moment, opinion polls suggest that the pro-referendum parties (the SNP, Greens and Salmond’s Alba) are together within the margin of error of securing a majority of votes. So they are likely to be able to claim their mandate, despite Salmond’s attempt to sabotage it.

But is a total vote for the three parties of just more than 50 per cent enough? No, says journalist Stephen Daisley in TheSpectator, pointing out that it is not in the Scottish parliament’s power to hold a referendum: “It is no more possible to obtain a mandate at a Holyrood election on a matter reserved to Westminster than it is for Wokingham Borough Council to obtain a mandate at the local elections for declaring war on Belgium.”

Which is true, but ignores the moral force of claiming the support of a majority of Scottish voters.

Tom Harris, the former Labour MP and another staunch unionist, makes a different argument, which is that another referendum should not be held until independence really is the “settled will” of the Scottish people – as devolution was in 1997. He proposes that the test should be two-thirds support in opinion polls for 10 years, and that the referendum should require a two-thirds majority to pass.

The nationalists have clutched their pearls and complained about moving the goalposts, but the goalposts should never have been put over there by David Cameron in the first place. The idea of dashing for a referendum on the strength of a “50 per cent plus one” election, and then winning it by 50 per cent plus one, ought to fill any decent nationalist with horror. As Harris says: “If you think that the views of up to half of Scots are irrelevant, if you really want to build an independent Scotland on the ruins of an angry and fatally divided populace, can you truly claim to love this country?”

The SNP complains about the divisiveness of a 52 per cent vote to leave the EU, yet wants to inflict something similar on Scotland in order to break much deeper ties with the rest of the UK.

If the pro-referendum parties win 50 per cent of the vote in Scotland on 6 May, it would be the start of the road to another referendum, not the end of it. Boris Johnson should say that of course Sturgeon may have another referendum – once it has been demonstrated that independence is the settled will of the Scottish people.

Yours,

John Rentoul

Chief political commentator