Alex Salmond has ensured Nicola Sturgeon’s hopes of a second independence referendum are on a knife-edge

If the SNP wins more than 50 per cent of the vote Sturgeon will have her mandate, no thanks to Salmond, writes John Rentoul

Nicola Sturgeon gets her hair cut in preparation for campaigning (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Alex Salmond has not just muddied the waters in the Scottish election, he has tipped a lorry-load of sludge into the highland spring. He wants to “cheat” the voting system to produce an artificial majority in the Scottish parliament in favour of another referendum on independence.

It is not me accusing him of cheating. It is Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, his successor and former apprentice who is notionally on the same side on the only question that matters in Scottish politics: that of breaking up the UK. She accuses her former mentor of putting the cause of independence at risk by trying to “game or cheat” his way to it.

His new party has certainly muddied the clarity of her aim, which was to gain a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament on a manifesto of seeking a second referendum. That would then put moral pressure on Boris Johnson to agree to it, because it would be the explicitly expressed desire of the Scottish people.

Then along came Salmond, with his cunning plan to “cheat” the proportional electoral system to produce a disproportionate result, by electing extra nationalist MSPs under the banner of his Alba party. Instead of the clarity of Sturgeon’s strategy, we will get the trickery of a distorted result, which risks throwing into doubt what the Scottish people mean by their votes.

However, four opinion polls this week have reduced the murk somewhat. They suggest that, although the drama of the Sturgeon vs Salmond feud has damaged the Scottish National Party, and suppressed support for independence, the first minister is still heading for victory on 6 May – but only just.

First, the polls are good news for Sturgeon because they suggest that Salmond’s new party is struggling to win any MSPs at all. Its support averages 4 per cent across the four polls, which falls short of the 5 per cent needed to start picking up seats. Only Panelbase, which recorded 6 per cent support for Alba, suggested Salmond was likely to win a handful of seats.

But the message of the polls for the cause of a second referendum is more mixed, because they suggest that it is touch and go as to whether more than 50 per cent of Scottish voters will vote for parties backing “indyref2”. Given that Salmond’s intervention means that a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament can no longer be assumed to represent a majority of the Scottish people, Sturgeon’s mandate for a second referendum is going to have to come from the number of votes cast.

Three of the polls suggest that parties backing a second referendum will win a majority of votes. Two of them (Opinium and Ipsos MORI) suggest the SNP on its own will win 53 per cent in the constituencies – a bit lower than the kind of emphatic result and endorsement of Sturgeon’s personal authority that seemed most likely before the eruption of hostilities with Salmond.

But Panelbase suggests that the SNP, on 49 per cent, would need to add the Greens’ 2 per cent to claim a majority, while Savanta ComRes suggests that, even with the Greens, the SNP would fall short (on 49 per cent).

The polling for the second votes, for the regional list seats (the ones that Salmond wants to “cheat”), is less promising for the indyref2 cause. On average, adding the three pro-independence parties together, SNP, Greens and Alba, they stand on exactly 50 per cent.

This means that, if Sturgeon is to claim a mandate for indyref2 from this election, it is likely to come from the constituency votes, in which Alba is not standing, thus rendering Salmond irrelevant (except as an irritant in parliament if he manages to get himself elected to a list seat).

But the polling suggests a majority of votes for indyref2 parties is not assured. These Scottish parliament elections have turned into a referendum on having another referendum, and it will be the total votes cast for either unionist or nationalist candidates that will matter.

If 50 per cent plus one vote for candidates demanding a second referendum, Sturgeon will have her mandate – no thanks to Salmond – and Boris Johnson will have a problem. But if not, the cause of independence will be set back for many years to come and possibly forever.