Inside Politics: Back to the future

Boris Johnson to announce help to buy plans as allies warn him not to reward rebels following damaging confidence vote, writes Matt Mathers

Thursday 09 June 2022 08:28 BST

(PA)

Is that another dead cat? Boris Johnson tries to get his faltering premiership back on track today by announcing help to buy plans. But his intervention comes amid more dire warnings about the UK economy and as his party continues to tear itself apart following Monday’s damaging confidence vote. Has this cat run of lives?

Inside the bubble

Commons action gets underway with Cabinet Office questions at 9.30am, followed by any urgent questions at 10.30am. Commons leader Mark Spencer has the weekly parliament business statement next, followed by any other ministerial statements. Michael Gove will then lead a debate on social housing and building safety. After that, Tory MPs and rebels have secured a debate on the government’s priorities for Ofwat, the private water regulator.

Daily Briefing

Safe as houses?

It may be health week in 10 Downing Street, but that doesn’t mean Boris Johnson, described by his former top aide Dominic Cummings as a “trolley”, isn’t veering right across the supermarket today to take us to the housing aisle as he announces right to buy plans.

But what exactly is the prime minister putting on the shelf for prospective buyers to have a look at, is there any meat on the bones of the policy, and will it be “oven-ready” just like his Brexit deal – or simply a reheated version of Margaret Thatcher’s scheme?

Johnson will set out more details when he delivers a speech in Lancaster later. But the main message Downing Street appears to want to get out, briefed to The Times, is a pledge to extend the right to buy to people who rent from housing associations. He also wants to allow lower-paid workers to use their housing benefits to buy homes and will argue that the £30 billion in housing benefit that goes towards rent would be better spent in helping people to become first-time buyers.

The policy is likely to be popular politically and is certainly attention grabbing – given a catchy ‘benefits to brick’ slogan. But whether it has any legs will depend on the willingness of banks, more conservative since the 2008 financial crash, to lend. Housing campaigners have for years been telling us that the problem in the UK is a lack of supply of homes, which has helped to keep prices high. Michael Gove’s vague pledge to replace every home sold would put us back to square one and fails to address chronic shortages.

A cynic might suggest that today’s announcement is nothing more than a distraction to divert attention Johnson’s leadership woes. The evidence points in that direction too: we have seen this policy twice before in the Tories’ 2015 and 2019 election manifestoes. It was piloted by David Cameron and reports this morning say that today’s plan will be centred around another trial because the plan will need to be delivered within existing government budgets. Today’s back to the future announcement has all the hallmarks of a government running low on ideas.

Meanwhile, Tory divisions over Johnson’s leadership continue and his allies have warned him not to reward rebels as he begins his policy blitz, which risks being overshadowed by rows over tax and Brexit. MPs are expressing fury amid new fears the government plans to breach international law with plans to tear up the Northern Ireland protocol.

Time your run

They say that timing is everything in politics – and the timing of today’s announcement on housing, as it has transpired, could not be worse, with a double whammy hammer blow of bad news for the UK economy which will add to the cost of living crisis.

First, the RAC motoring group has said that the cost of filling up a typical family car with petrol could exceed £100 as soon as today. A rise of more than 2p a litre has increased the average price of petrol to 180.73 per litre. Before the most-recent big increase on Tuesday, the price of petrol stood at 175.6p per litre.

Second, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that Britain is on the brink of recession and heading towards 0 per cent growth next year. It added that the UK will be the worst-performing economy of any nation in the developed world apart from Russia in 2023.

The gloomy forecasts come at a time when the housing market is already on fire, stoked by Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday and pent up demand during the Covid pandemic, although prices may well now start to cool with the bleak economic outlook and rising interest rates.

Lots of hard working families across the country are struggling to pay their bills at moment. It should be welcomed that government is at the very least giving lip service to the idea getting them on the housing ladder. But buying a home for the first time may be the last thing on the minds of many right now.

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On the record

“I’ve not met the home secretary yet. I’ve asked to speak to her on a number of occasions, and pre-arranged meetings have been cancelled on maybe five or six occasions now.”

David Neal, chief inspector of borders and immigration, says he has not met with Priti Patel once since being appointed last March – despite the government’s efforts to get to grips with Channel crossings.

From the Twitterati

“Home Office sounding increasingly concerned tonight that the first flight carrying migrants to Rwanda from the UK will be held up by an injunction. A case was lodged at the High Court earlier today by a variety of charities / action groups / unions. Flight due to depart Tuesday.”