Inside Politics: All eyes and ears on Sir Graham Brady

1922 Committee chair expected to make announcement on Boris Johnson no confidence vote within hours, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

The rain clouds are back after a glorious weekend of sunshine. Boris Johnson will try to make the political weather this week with announcements aimed at getting his faltering premiership back on track. But his interventions will be washed away by a tide of questions about a confidence vote on his leadership. Reports this morning say an announcement could be made within hours.

Inside the bubble

Commons action gets underway with work and pensions questions at 2.30pm, followed by any urgent questions or statements. MPs will then go through the second reading of the National Security Bill, which is aimed at modernising British espionage laws. Labour MP Dan Carden has an adjournment debate on the hospitality industry in Liverpool.

Daily Briefing

Dead man walking

“Nothing has changed”.

Remember those immortal words from Theresa May during a speech in Wales that came to define her disastrous 2017 general election campaign? They broadly sum up the current state of play surrounding Boris Johnson’s leadership woes this morning, as MPs head back to Westminster following the long bank holiday weekend.

Things remain pretty much where they were last week. Questions about whether or not the prime minister will face a confidence vote this week remain the only story in town, although we are still no closer to knowing how many letters have actually gone into Sir Graham Brady. The smart money, however, says that the number of MPs getting in touch with the 1922 Committee chair has gone up and that an announcement is imminent – and could even be made in the next few hours.

Last night, one minister conceded that a ballot “might well happen” – a change of tone from the government which came just hours after Grant Shapps, the transport secretary and Johnson ultra-loyalist, told the Sunday shows it definitely was not going to happen. Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has this morning also admitted that a vote could happen.

Much has been written in recent days about how the “payroll vote” (those in government jobs, there around 173 of them) could save Johnson’s skin if and when a vote is called. But that constituency of MPs is perhaps not as solid as it first appears. Wavering ministers, dealt another blow by a poll published yesterday showing the Tories are on course for a hammering at the Wakefield byelecton, might well be questioning the merits of backing a PM who would become badly wounded by a vote – regardless of what way it goes. As we report today, one MP believes it could be a secret rebellion among disgruntled ministers that could see Johnson off.

“It is a secret ballot, and in the privacy of the polling booth it is far from certain that all of his ministers will vote to keep him in office,” the MP said. “Some of them have very small majorities and will be worried for their seats. Some of them may think they would prosper better under another leader. And some of them just don’t like what he is doing to the party,” they added.

In December 2018, more than a year after losing her party’s majority, rebel MPs forced a vote on May’s leadership, which she won. But not by a comfortable enough margin to quell discontent about her leadership, leading former chancellor George Osborne to describe May as a “dead woman walking”.

Just over six months later she resigned. This week we could find out if Johnson is a dead man walking. While nothing much has changed since Thursday, everything could change in the next few hours or days. The differences between Johnson and May could not be more stark. How ironic (satisfying, perhaps, for May, whose premiership was made more difficult by Johnson), then, it would be if they ended up suffering the same fate. All eyes and ears are now on Brady.

(PA)

Long-range missiles

There is another major update to report on Russia’s war against Ukraine, after the UK followed the US in pledging to, for the first time, send long-range missiles to Kyiv to push back Putin’s troops – a move that will enrage the Kremlin.

It comes after Russia struck the outskirts of Kyiv for the first time since April, while continuing to make incremental gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Moscow’s heavy bombardment shows little sign of letting up.

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, confirmed that the UK would send an unspecified number of M270 multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine, in a move he said was closely coordinated with the US. The rockets have a range of some 50 miles – longer than any technology currently in use in the conflict.

“The UK stands with Ukraine in this fight and is taking a leading role in supplying its heroic troops with the vital weapons they need to defend their country from unprovoked invasion,” Wallace said in a statement from the Ministry of Defence.

“If the international community continues its support, I believe Ukraine can win. As Russia’s tactics change, so must our support to Ukraine,” he added. “These highly capable multiple-launch rocket systems will enable our Ukrainian friends to better protect themselves against the brutal use of long-range artillery, which Putin’s forces have used indiscriminately to flatten cities.”

Moscow has not yet responded to the move, although it is likely to condemn it in strong terms. The Kremlin accused Washington of adding “fuel to the fire” of the conflict last week after president Joe Biden confirmed the US would send similar missiles to Ukraine.

Today’s cartoon (Brian Adcock)

On the record

“No, I don’t.”

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary and Johnson loyalist, when asked by the BBC if he thinks there will be a vote on his boss’s future this week.

From the Twitterati

“Some ministers close to Johnson think the number of rebels have been exaggerated. One ally predicted ‘an entire week of mea culpa’ following reports of an imminent no-confidence vote. Another said, ‘I’ve heard the wolf cry too many times.’”

Sebastian Payne, Financial Times Whitehall editor, hears reports that up to 67 letters have gone into Brady are exaggerated.

Essential reading

• Andrew Woodcock, The Independent: What is in the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill?
• Secret asylum seeker, The Guardian: I came here to save my life. By sending me to Rwanda, the UK threatens it again
• Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic: What the veneration of Gandhi’s killer says about India
• Hamish McRae, The Independent: Should we be worried about an economic ‘hurricane’ approaching?

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