Inside Politics: Gray Day

Senior civil servant Sue Gray set to release Partygate report as No 10 prepares to announce measures to help with cost of living crisis, writes Matt Mathers

Wednesday 25 May 2022 08:36 BST

(PA)

Today is the day. The wait is finally over as Sue Gray is expected to release her much-anticipated report into Partygate. Elsewhere, the government is reportedly preparing to announce measures to ease the cost of living crisis as early as tomorrow. Why the sudden rush?

Inside the bubble

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today:

Westminster is braced for the publication of civil servant Sue Gray’s final report on her investigation into Partygate. If so, Boris Johnson will have a busy day: after prime minister’s questions, he will make a statement to MPs on Gray’s report. He might also do a press conference and address the 1922 committee of Tory MPs.

There will be a Commons debate on Ukraine. On the committee corridor, Alok Sharma will be questioned about progress since the COP26 summit in Glasgow; justice minister Victoria Atkins on the state of prisons and Nadhim Zahawi about unmarried women who gave up children for adoption when this was the norm.

Daily Briefing

Gray Day

There are two main stories dominating the news agenda this morning, both of which dove-tailed last night as Tuesday drew to a close. The first is the likely publication of Sue Gray’s report into Partygate. The second is more government help with the cost of living crisis (more on that below).

It looks nailed on now that senior civil servant Gray will release her report later this morning, with Boris Johnson likely to give a statement to MPs in the Commons once Downing Street has had a chance to digest it.

So what can we expect? The truth is that only a handful of civil servants in Gray’s team know exactly what will be in the document. But her interim paper published earlier this year provides some clues as to what shape the final report will take.

In an update in January, Gray blasted “failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times” – she will elaborate on that theme and potentially single out top civil servants (and maybe even the prime minister himself) for criticism.

Recent reports have suggested that Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, could be thrown under the bus in an attempt to shield the Big Dog from the worst of the criticism. Our exclusive story last night that No 10 is preparing for the resignation of Case, who escaped the Met Police probe without a fine having “popped” his head into one of the events investigated, suggests that might be the case.

Last night a source told ITV News that the final report will contain photos of the PM, the aforementioned Case and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor. Images are so often more powerful than words and it could be these which determine how bad the fallout from the report is for Johnson.

Allies of the PM have argued in recent days that the decisive Partygate moments have already passed: i.e he was not handed another fine and therefore is safe. They, and Johnson, hope that, while the report could make difficult reading for the PM, it will ultimately draw a line under the sorry saga and allow the government to move on.

But there are others who believe the exact opposite could happen: that Gray’s report could be so excoriating for Johnson that the story is whipped back up into a frenzy, creating another crisis for the government and the PM’s leadership.

More lurid details of the parties taking place at the heart of power during Covid lockdowns – and the wider drinking culture in No 10 – emerged yesterday. More of these types of stories and potentially damaging photos in the Gray report could see backbench Tories become jittery once more.

Is that a dead cat?

On to the second story: the cost of living crisis and measures to help millions of people across the country struggling with their bills. Reports last night said that Johnson and Sunak were frantically scrambling to finalise a package of measures to be announced by Thursday.

Why the sudden rush after weeks of dither and delay? A cynic might suggest that No 10 is deploying the classic dead cat strategy, with the announcement timed to offset public anger over the Partygate report.

In fairness to Sunak, he has previously said that he would hold back on announcing further measures to help until the economic outlook in the months ahead became clear.

And there was some clarity on that yesterday, at least in terms of energy bills. Regulator Ofgem essentially confirmed what has long been feared: the energy price cap is likely to surge from £1,971 to £2,800 a year in October. So what measures are going to be introduced by Sunak? The Times and The Telegraph both report that a windfall tax to help with poorest families will be announced in “days”. Other papers carry reports that billions of pounds worth of help is on the way.

On the record

“Sadiq has today written to the acting commissioner of the Met to seek a detailed explanation of the factors which were taken into account by investigating officers when decisions were made about whether to take action in individual cases in the Downing Street ‘Partygate’ investigation. He has asked them to take steps to also reassure Londoners by making this explanation to them directly, because he is concerned that the trust and confidence of Londoners in the police is being further eroded by this lack of clarity. The mayor has been clear he cannot and would not intervene in operational decisions.”

A spokesperson for Sadiq Kahn says the mayor has written to the Met asking for transparency in the Partygate investigation.

From the Twitterati

“Sources suggest could be only three people identified in pics - pm- so more images like ones from @itvnews - and CX and Cab sec at birthday gathering (which could raise qs about police fines for one and not other)”.