Inside Politics: Boris Johnson hit with fresh defeat and new Brexit warnings

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How screwed are we on a scale of one to 10? Seven? Eight? Nine? Donald Trump has told us to keep calm and carry on spending, attacking the “prophets of doom” who offer “predictions of the apocalypse” while the ice sheets melt and the wildfires burn. We’re just over a week away from waking up outside the EU, and the optimists are still taunting the realists over Brexit. Boris Johnson has been given trade deal warnings by Brussels and Washington – and is also facing a backlash over his immigration plans. But the PM who promised a golden age still believes Britain can defy those he likes to dismiss as “doomsters and gloomsters”. I’m Adam Forrest, and welcome to The Independent’s daily Inside Politics briefing.

Inside the bubble

Our political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for in SW1 today:

Sajid Javid will address the World Economic Forum in Davos after Boris Johnson diluted a headline-grabbing ban on ministers “sipping champagne with billionaires” at the elite event. The Chancellor is due to speak at a session on “the future of financial markets.” Following another Brexit bill defeat in the Lords, Boris Johnson will face Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs. And in the race to succeed Corbyn, Lisa Nandy, after winning the GMB union’s backing, will make a speech on the future of the welfare state to Centrepoint, the homelessness charity where she used to work.

Daily briefing

ISMS AND SCHISMS: Corbynism is dead, comrades. All hail Baileyism – an entirely new movement led by the Queen of the left. Labour’s bolshie chairman Ian Lavery last night declared: “We’ve got Rebecca Long-Bailey – Baileyism”, and demanded frontrunner Keir Starmer quit the leadership contest on the basis on his gender. “We need a female leader of the Labour party. Stand aside, Keir.” Jess Phillips – someone who was very keen on a female leader – has departed the stage, claiming the next leader had to unite the party. She admitted: “That person is not me.” One of Phillips’ allies told The Telegraph she dropped out after deciding her supporters would back Starmer as the “best option” to beat Long-Bailey (who she clearly despises, despite the sisterhood). Long-Bailey, meanwhile, has said she wants so-called “open selection” so sitting Labour MPs can be challenged ahead of elections. Labour parliamentarian Wes Streeting said the party was supposed to be winning new MPs, not “getting rid of the ones we’ve got left”.

MOUNTAIN MAN: Despite an apparent No 10 ban on Davos 2020 attendance, Sajid Javid has been given permission to jet off to the Swiss Alps to made a good impression among the billionaires. Let’s hope the Saj checks behind the toilet when he gets to the mountain retreat. According to Zurich’s Tages-Anzeiger newspaper, Russian agents posed as plumbers to plant surveillance equipment before being sent home by police. Donald Trump used his Davos speech to describe Boris Johnson as “wonderful”, claiming a “tremendous” US-UK trade deal lay ahead. But his treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin played the bad cop, threatening Johnson with “Trump’s tariffs” if he brings in a digital services tax on the tech giants. The PM has also been warned the EU is preparing a trade deal offer tougher than those given to Canada and Japan. Brussels is reportedly planning to withhold Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) to stop UK industry bodies easily certifying goods that conform to EU standards.

POINTS MEAN PRIZES: Johnson appears to be in liberal mode this week, promising to “put people before passports”. The immigration-bashing right won’t be too pleased to learn the prime minister is ditching the harsh £30,000 minimum salary requirement for migrants coming to Britain after Brexit (a harsh income threshold Theresa May had promised). According to The Times, earnings will still be taken into consideration in the new points-based system – but will only be one factor alongside English proficiency, education, and a willingness to work outside of London (I can’t foresee any problems in encouraging newcomers to head to small towns across England). Iain Duncan Smith is not happy. But he’s holding fire for now, saying only: “They should be cautious about ditching the £30,000 threshold.” Apparently the PM gave a “cast-iron commitment” that unskilled immigration would be still be cut. But we all know Johnson’s promises have no real metal.

WARM WELCOME: A Tory at the Durham Miners’ Gala? About as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit, surely? But several local Tories are planning to attend the totemic union event. The miners’ association president Alan Mardghum said he would “rather die in a ditch” than invite any of them, advising rather ominously that Conservative MPs better consult the police about their safety. Dehenna Davison, newly-elected Tory in Bishop Auckland, sent Mardghum a cheeky retort on Twitter: “See you there Alan”. Richard Holden, who seized North West Durham for the party, warned: “Me and other Tory MPs will definitely be there.” Perhaps Jacob Rees-Mogg could smuggle them in with subterfuge? The Commons leader has been given an outside chance, at 100/1, of replacing Daniel Craig as the next James Bond. “Unfortunately I only have a licence to Bill,” he quipped.

LORD KNOWS THEY’VE TRIED: As the revolutionary left likes to say: “Defeat, defeat, defeat – until the final victory.” The quasi-revolutionaries at No 10 were forced to watch another momentary defeat for the Brexit bill in the Lords, as peers voted in favour of Lord Dubs’ amendment to protect the rights of refugee children after Brexit. Lord Dubs said it was “now the turn of the Commons to show what they’re made of”. But the Tory benches are made of slavish gratitude to Johnson for their precious seats. They’re expected to reverse the amendment when the bill returns to the lower house. Elsewhere, there was a symbolic defeat for the government in the Welsh Assembly. AMs joined their counterparts in the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly by voting to reject the Brexit bill. Claiming it amounts to a constitutional crisis, SNP chiefs are demanding a meeting of the Privy Council. They won’t get it, obviously.

On the record

“I’ve been proud to stand on the policy platform that we’ve had. That’s not to say I’m not a completely different person from Jeremy, because I am, and I’ll be taking the party in completely different directions.”

Rebecca Long-Bailey says she’s not Jeremy Corbyn 2.0.

From the Twitterati

“This is a no brainer which other candidates should back. Other parties have similar systems, it’s basic democratic good sense, most Labour MPs whatever their politics have nothing to fear because they’ve got good relations with members, it’ll mean more diverse MPs.”

Owen Jones supports Long-Bailey’s call for open selections...

“Because the one thing that really needs changing about Labour is that we need to spend more time trying to deselect MPs. Divisive codswallop.”

...while Labour blogger Luke Akehurst does not.

Essential reading

Vince Cable, The Independent: It reeks of self-importance, but I need to overcome my cynicism about Davos because this year it really matters

Tom Peck, The Independent: Jess Phillips accidentally made clear why Labour is doomed

Zoe Williams, The Guardian: Keir Starmer’s soft-left approach is the unifying force that Labour needs

David Corn, Mother Jones: With Trump’s impeachment, American democracy is on trial

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