Japan’s birth rate hits alarming new low in first half of 2024

Drop marks third year in a row that number of births fell below 400,000 between January and June

The number of births in Japan for the first half of the year dropped to the lowest since 1969, preliminary government data showed, underscoring the daunting task the country faced in tackling depopulation.

Japan marked 350,074 births between January to June, which is a 5.7 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year, the health ministry’s preliminary report said.

This continued the trend of declining births over the past few years, with the total number of births in 2023 also being the lowest since records began in 1899.

According to the Population Survey Report on 30 August, the number of births in Japan decreased by 5.7 per cent, or 20,978, compared to the same period last year. In 2023, the number of births decreased by 3.6 per cent, or 13,890, compared to the same period the previous year.

This drop marked the third year in a row that the number of births in Japan fell below 400,000 between January and June.

Last year, the government announced during a cabinet meeting that it would implement “extraordinary measures to combat the declining birthrate”. Prime minister Fumio Kishida called Japan’s declining birth rate alarming. He said Japan was “standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society”.

“Focusing attention on policies regarding children and child-rearing is an issue that cannot wait and cannot be postponed,” he told lawmakers.

Birthrates are slowing in several countries but the issue is especially severe in Japan where rising life expectancy over recent decades has led to a growing elderly population and a shrinking workforce to support them.

According to World Bank data, Japan now has the second-highest proportion of people aged 65 and over in the world – around 28 per cent – surpassed only by the small state of Monaco. According to rough estimates, by 2050, Japan could see a reduction of one-fifth of its current population.

The government is trying various measures to address this issue, including expanding childcare facilities, offering housing subsidies, and even launching a government-run dating app to encourage marriage and childbearing.

The app even caught billionaire Elon Musk’s interest who wrote on X: “I’m glad the government of Japan recognises the importance of this matter. If radical action isn’t taken, Japan (and many other countries) will disappear!”

“Marriage is a decision based on one’s own values, but the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is working to build momentum for marriage so that those who think they ‘intend to get married eventually’ can take that first step,” the dating app’s website said.

“We hope that every single one of you who wishes to get married will think about what being in a ‘couple’ means to you,” it said.

It also outlined other government measures to support couples, including providing information on work-life balance, childcare, housing assistance, men’s involvement in housework and child-rearing, and career counselling.

Earlier this year in June, a spokesperson said the government would take “unprecedented steps” to cope with the declining birthrate, such as expanding childcare and promoting wage hikes for younger workers.

“The declining birthrate is in a critical situation,” chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told reporters. “The next six years or so until 2030, when the number of young people will rapidly decline, will be the last chance to reverse the trend.”

The numbers for Tokyo’s unmarried 50-year-old people were highest in Japan at 32 per cent for men and 24 per cent for women.

Japan’s fertility rate has also reached another record low, with only 727,277 births recorded last year, bringing the fertility rate down from 1.26 to 1.20. This is well below the 2.1 rate needed for a stable population.

The decline in births in Japan has been ongoing since the 1970s and has accelerated in recent years, leading to more deaths than births and causing the population to shrink. In 2023, Japan recorded 1.57 million deaths, more than double the number of births.

Fertility rates in Japan are also declining (AFP via Getty Images)

Despite the efforts of the government, experts predicted that the population decline will continue for decades due to its current structure in the country. Even with an immediate increase in the fertility rate, the population will keep falling till the demographic imbalance between the young and the old stabilised.

Japan’s challenges are compounded by a decline in marriages and a rise in divorces, further impacting the birth rate. The government says that it remains committed to encouraging family formation and supporting couples through various initiatives.

Experts suggested that several factors have contributed to Japan’s declining birth rates, including rising living costs, increased participation of women in education and the workforce, and greater access to contraception, leading women to choose to have fewer children.

Renowned Japanese economist Shujiro Urata wrote in the East Asia Forum that factors contributing to depopulation in Japan included high economic costs of raising children, especially for low-income families, and changing societal norms, which have led to fewer marriages and children.

The number of marriages per 1,000 people fell from 10 in 1970 to 4.1 in 2022.

He stated that the impacts of this trend were significant, a declining working-age population threatened GDP growth and would lead to labour shortages, particularly in essential services and rural areas.

“Japan’s GDP is bound to decline with the decline in the working-age population unless there is a large increase in productivity. This decline can be slowed by extending the retirement age to increase the number of older workers and by increasing female participation in the workforce,” he wrote.

In January this year, the Population Strategy Panel submitted the “Population Vision 2100” proposal to Mr Kishida. The plan aimed to keep Japan’s population above 80 million by increasing the fertility rate. It recommended creating a new committee under the prime minister to oversee population strategies, focusing on two main areas: stabilising the population by improving conditions for raising children and strengthening the economy by enhancing productivity and accepting high-skilled foreign workers.

An analysis in the Michigan Journal of Economics stated that even though efforts like the “Womenomics” – a policy based on the idea that Japan can boost its economy by getting more women into the workforce – have increased female workforce participation, it has failed to address deep-seated gender disparities and workplace culture issues.

Consequently, Japan’s socio-economic challenges and cultural factors, including rigid gender roles and high career pressures, complicated efforts to reverse the birth rate decline, leaving the nation in a precarious position as it sought sustainable solutions, the Journal stated.

Meanwhile, there are other sociocultural impacts of the declining birth rate. An ageing population means the closure of many schools across the country. Last year AFP reported that several empty school buildings were being repurposed in Japan.

The Ashigakubo primary school in Yokoze, which closed in 2009 due to declining student numbers, now hosts community events and generates revenue, making 200,000 yen (£1040) in 2022. Some schools have been converted into an aquarium or a vinyl shop.

However, not all buildings are cost-effective to renovate; Namegata, where the population fell 20 per cent between 2009 and 2023, has seen some schools transformed into agricultural parks, while others have been demolished due to high renovation costs.

Despite the challenges of Japanese society, including an ageing population and declining public services, The New York Times recently reported that the gradual nature of these changes has fostered a sense of resignation rather than urgency for reform among the Japanese.

There’s a prevailing attitude of “Shouganai” – “it can’t be helped” – the Times reported, which reflected a general sense of calm and acceptance of the status quo.