Oscars predictions 2018: Who will win Best Picture, Best Director and more?

We decide what films will – and should – take home trophies

This year’s Oscars are days away which means... it’s prediction time!

The 2017-18 awards season draws to a close with a ceremony, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, that’ll see the likes of Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water compete to take home the coveted Best Picture trophy (should Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway name the correct winner, that is).

Below, three of our writers wade through several of this year’s categories to decide what films will win compared with the ones that probably should.

You can check out the rolling list of winners here.

Best Picture

Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Lady Bird

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has been a dominating presence on the awards circuit this year, but there’s one telling aspect to the Oscars: Martin McDonagh failed to land a nomination for Best Director. It could simply be that voters have perceived McDonagh’s screenplay as the larger driving force behind the film, but there’s little correlation with previous years, and it’s straightforwardly a rare thing to win Best Film without a Best Director nomination. Indeed, the last time the feat was achieved was in 2013 with Argo, though Ben Affleck’s exclusion from the Best Director category was greeted with a pretty visceral reaction – it was treated like an outrageous snub, which is hardly the greeting McDonagh received.

And so, favour falls to Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. It’s big-hearted, wide-eyed celebration of true love and cinematic history is an irresistible piece of bait to Academy voters, part of why Moonlight’s win was such a shock when La La Land so conveniently ticked all the boxes. The Shape of Water also has a leading 13 nominations in its favour, alongside key wins at the DGAs (Director’s Guild Awards) and PGAs (Producer’s Guild Awards).

It’s a shame, however, that Lady Bird has been deemed the outsider in the race. Like the sweet, nostalgic embrace of flipping through a photo album, Greta Gerwig’s first outing as a solo director finds profound meaning within the simplicity of its story: though Lady Bird’s experiences of Sacramento, college applications, and fitting in may not match yours, Gerwig’s work quietly encompasses so many of the wider emotional milestones of late teendom, that it can’t help but feel achingly familiar in its approach. Clarisse Loughrey

Best Actress

Frances McDormand plays the provocative Mildred Hayes, a mother chasing justice for the murder of her daughter in ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Should win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

One of the safest bets of the night, McDormand’s brash, but hurt, turn as a grieving mother hell-bent on revenge in Martin McDonagh’s bleak outlook on American life has been winning accolade after accolade this awards season. With a Golden Globe and a Bafta already neatly tucked under her arm, the Oscar must only be an inevitability.

Sally Hawkins may be far from the favourite to win, but her performance is still astounding: one of the deepest, most aching passion. As the mute Eliza, her sign language-based performance perfectly encapsulates the isolation and frustration that can come out of feeling like you’re communicating in a language no one else understands. Clarisse Loughrey

Best Actor

Gary Oldman won a Bafta for his performance in ‘Darkest Hour’ (Rex) (Rex Features)

Will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Gary Oldman has become the de facto choice to win the Best Actor award, having taken the Golden Globe, Bafta and every other award under the sun. Although Oldman’s fantastic performance elevates a middling film, Timothée Chalamet offers an utterly mesmerising performance in Call Me By Your Name. His chemistry with Armie Hammer, along with a standout emotional final scene, make the Luca Guadagnino movie essential viewing for any cinephile. Jack Shepherd

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney as LaVona Golden in ‘I, Tonya’ (Neon)

Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should win: Mary J Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney has picked up numerous awards for I, Tonya. However, Mary J Blige’s breathtaking performance in Mudbound remains an awards season highlight, the musician-turned-actor playing Florence Jackson – a mother wanting a better life for her family – with grace and perfection. Speaking of mothers, another worthy winner would be Laurie Metcalf who gives an incredibly emotional performance in Lady Bird. Jack Shepherd

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe in the ‘The Florida Project’ (Rex) (Rex Features)

Will win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Should win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Just three months ago, Willem Dafoe would have been forgiven for having his acceptance speech already drafted. After scooping an array of awards (including from the National Board of Review), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association went on to throw a billboard-sized spanner in the works by handing the Supporting Actor Golden Globe to Sam Rockwell. Rockwell didn’t seem like a major player during last year’s festival season. Critics, be damned: in a short space of time, the actor has gathered so much steam he’s transformed into the most unlikely of unstoppable forces.

But don’t go thinking this is all sewn up – the Oscars have a history of bringing things full circle with this category. But with Three Billboards’ double nomination (voters have split focus between Rockwell and co-star Woody Harrelson) and a weak set of competitors generally, it seems Dafoe may live to regret not writing that acceptance speech sooner. Jacob Stolworthy

Best Director

Christopher Nolan on the set of ‘Dunkirk’ (Warner Bros/Kobal/Rex) (Warner Bros/Kobal/REX)

Will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

In all honesty, any one of this year’s directing nominees would be a worthy recipient of the trophy awarding what is undoubtedly the year’s most exciting category. The inclusion of first-time filmmakers Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) and Jordan Peele (Get Out) marks the second time a woman and black director have been nominated in the category in Oscars history, and a win for either would be a reason to celebrate.

Which isn’t to take anything away from the other three nominees, Christopher Nolan, Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson. Each directed films to be admired, their flair behind the camera perhaps peaking with each film (Dunkirk, The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread). While this is Del Toro’s to lose, it would be a joy to see Nolan’s name mentioned, a director whose critical and commercial praise falls short of awards recognition. Technically, it’s hard to argue that Dunkirk was not the best-directed film of 2017 so for that reason alone – merged with the fact he shamefully received no nomination for Inception in 2011 – it would be good to see him take the trophy. Jacob Stolworthy

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Three Billboards
Should win: Lady Bird

Get Out has a strong chance of winning here, with one of its biggest strengths being how tightly formed its central conceit is, but it also seems to depend so much on how Academy voters are feeling about Three Billboards (again). If the film still has its fans here, despite its notably mixed reception elsewhere, then Original Screenplay seems like a guarantee. But if the film has fallen out of favour, then this could be Get Out’s opportunity to finally reap some awards glory. But could there also be a chance for Lady Bird? It’s a film that surely soars thanks to the power of a few carefully chosen words. Clarisse Loughrey

Best Adapted Screenplay

Armie Hammer (left) and Timothée Chalamet in this year’s favourite (Sony Pictures Classics)

Will win: Call Me By Your Name
Should win: Call Me By Your Name

Based on André Aciman’s incredible book of the same name, Call Me By Your Name wipes the floor with almost every competitor. James Ivory’s screenplay changes certain details – locations, jobs – to create a wonderful movie set in an abstract Italian paradise, while the final speech given by Elio’s father (Michael Stuhlbarg) makes for an emotional climax worthy of an Oscar. The one movie that could snatch the trophy away is Molly’s Game, written by Aaron Sorkin, whose snappy dialogue has been heavily praised. Jack Shepherd

Best Editing

‘Dunkirk’ has been largely snubbed – but could sweep the technical categories (Warner Bros) (Warner Bros.)

Will win: Dunkirk
Should win: Baby Driver

With Dunkirk an early favourite for Best Picture now relegated to fairly middling chances, expect Christopher Nolan’s epic to come out in force for the technical awards. War films always do well in this category, but the film might especially be aided in this case by Nolan’s intricate, time-bending structure. However, you could also easily argue the editing tricks contained within Edgar Wright’s car-chase musical Baby Driver are just as impressive, and possibly in better service of the storyline. Clarisse Loughrey

Best Cinematography

‘Blade Runner 2049’ has some of the grandest imagery this year (Rex)

Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Blade Runner 2049

We’re not saying we’ll riot if Blade Runner 2049 fails to win the Cinematography Oscar, but if Roger Deakins doesn’t turn his 14th nomination into a win… well, we will riot. His work on Denis Villeneuve’s sequel puts the art into “arthouse”, every single frame is portrait-ready for your living room wall. While Hoyte van Hoytema (Dunkirk) and Mudbound’s Rachel Morrison – the first woman to ever be nominated in the category – provide commendable competition, we think voters will side with Deakins. Jacob Stolworthy

Best Visual Effects

Will win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Blade Runner 2049 may have stolen the Bafta, but the Oscar should go to War for the Planet of the Apes. The Matt Reeves-directed movie features the most incredible VFX apes ever seen on screen, each animal unbelievably realistic. Of course, the realism also comes down to the performances underneath, with Andy Serkis being a particular standout. Jack Shepherd

The Academy Awards take place on Sunday (4 March)

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