How Kenya has proved critics wrong in the fight against coronavirus

Since avoiding the huge death toll predicted at the start of the pandemic, the East African state is open and ready for tourists to return

(Loisaba Conservancy)

At the start of the pandemic, experts wasted no time in predicting that Covid-19 would quickly overwhelm Africa.

In Kenya, where millions live in crowded slums, the expectation that the country’s limited health services would soon become swamped led to many expats fleeing to their home nations in April.

That same month, the United Nations forecast that without intervention, 3.3 million Africans could die from the virus.

Isolation units to house hundreds of people were hastily built across Kenya, and protective equipment was stockpiled as medics prepared for the worst.

Yet catastrophe was avoided and the huge death toll has not happened.

Dr Betty Addero Radier, chief executive of the Kenya Tourist Board, says the government’s decisive action in closing borders and effectively sealing off the country has so far, thankfully, managed to help protect citizens.

“Kenya was one of the first countries to close our entire air space, and it remained closed until mid August,” says Dr Radier.

“Kenya’s response has been swift and practical. The perception [in the West] might be that ‘Africa has suffered a lot of diseases and knows the repercussions’, but really the interventions made by our government have served us in good stead.

“There is a mindset in the Western world that says whenever anything happens, Africa is going to be the hardest hit. But Africa has been able to prove this wrong.

“What’s happening in the UK is shocking. It sounds that as if there is a lot of uncertainty as the pandemic evolves and that there is no plan. "

Kenya has so far reported just over 100,000 official cases of coronavirus infections, and of those, just 1,744 people died.

Given testing is on a more limited per capita basis then in many Western countries, it is near certain that many cases have not been detected.

Recent antibody testing suggests the virus has been far more widespread throughout Kenya than official figures have uncovered.

Nevertheless, when the overall number of deaths is compared with previous years there remains little significant discrepancy, reinforcing the reality that the country led by president Uhuru Kenyatta appears to have so far done better than its former colonial master in handling the pandemic,

Theories abound as to how Kenya - and many other African nations - have escaped the high Covid death counts seen in countries such as not only the UK but US, Brazil and India.

As well as the government’s swift Covid-stopping public health actions, scientists are continuing to look at factors including the country’s young, fit, primarily rural populations who may have been previously been exposed to pathogens.

But its public health experts know the success so far does not rule out subsequent spikes if the government, and people, do not remain vigilant. It is concern shared by others who had adopted the country as their home.

One ex pat, who fled to Germany in April before returning to Nairobi before Christmas, said “with schools reopening across Kenya, lots of foreign travel and the new Covid variants, it feels like its a matter of time before there’s a big increase.

"A lot of people fear getting tested. They think the government will force them to stop them working.”

But, so far this has not happened. A worrying rise in cases in November rapidly diminished in December, not least as a spate of cold weather ended and the sun came out, prompting less mixing indoors. The most recent figures released yesterday showed just four people had died of the virus in the previous 24 hours. 

That is why, as much of the rest of the world remains stuck in miserable lockdowns, Kenya is open. Officials hope this means that it can now start slowly rebuilding its tourism sector, on which so many local jobs and livelihoods depend.

Tourism accounts for an estimated 9% of Kenya's GDP. In 2020 that figure diminished sharply. For months no foreign visitors arrived, resulting in lodges being shuttered and their suppliers facing the leanest of times.

In response, the cabinet secretary for tourism, Najib Balala, led a switch to focus on domestic visitors. He demanded swift action from his tourism officials and corralled operators to change their business model. It is a solution that many businesses, previously seeking the high-spending international market, were quick to adopt.

Thomas Silvester is chief executive of Loisaba, a 57,000 acre wildlife conservancy in Laikipia, Northern Kenya. He says domestic tourism enabled them to ensure continuity last year but international bookings are now finally returning.

“Before Christmas we opened up one of our camps, which did ok with families from Nairobi who would otherwise have been travelling abroad,” says Mr Silvester.

“We are now keeping that camp open, and we are seeing an uptick in enquiries from wealthy people seeking longer stays.”

Loisaba has also supported local communities by educating them about preventing Covid, and conducting outreach clinics to help test and treat those in need. These are vital safeguards to protect the local people who work at tourism businesses, enabling them to fully operate again one day soon.

“Tourism has really suffered badly, but we are now feeling hopeful,” adds Mr Silvester. “I think there will be pent up demand with people desperate to get out. If they’ve had their vaccine, they’ll be getting out of there and going on holiday.

“Fear and uncertainty are the enemy of tourism, but we hope the vaccine will mark an end to that worry about getting stuck somewhere. We hope to be fully open by May, following the Government’s Covid-secure protocol for tourist facilities.”

He said: “I am so proud of the Kenyan government. The country has known great tragedies before, but Kenyans are brilliant, accepting, and have shown real resilience. We’ll get through this together.”

 Despite the nationwide night-time curfew having been extended to 12 March as part of the package of precautions the government continues to keep in place to combat fears of a second spike, Dr Radier echoes the message that Kenya is “open and ready to receive visitors.”

“The tourism recovery is driven by the measures other countries put in place to protect their citizens. But as soon as travel is possible again, our parks and animals are waiting. Animals have thrived during the lockdown, parks are regenerated. It’s an even richer experience to visit Kenya.”

As the pandemic approaches its first anniversary in March, the East Africa state - and much of sub saharan Africa - has suppressed the first year of a virus that has brought many of the world’s most advanced healthcare systems to their knees.

And, in having achieved that, Kenya has also proved the doubters wrong.