Young people, if you live in one of these marginal constituencies it's time to oust your Tory MP

If 18-24 year olds turned out at the national average level and if Labour retained their votes from 2015, 32 out of the 57 Labour-held marginals could be saved

Young people could make real difference this election (Getty)

Under 25s are most likely to feel disillusioned by mainstream politics, meaning they’ll be least likely to turn up at the ballot box on 8 June. Countless cuts and minimal investment in their futures has only compounded disaffection. But the 18-24 vote has the power to change everything – if only they realised it. Our research shows if younger generations defy expectations this general election, they could defeat the Tories in key marginals.

For a report commissioned by Novara, we analysed Electoral Commission, Office for National Statistics (ONS) and national polling data and the main findings should encourage every under 25 to get registered to vote by 22 May.

In many of the 57 Labour-held marginal constituencies, 18-24 year olds make up a significant percentage of the electorate, ranging from 7.7 per cent in Wirral West to 26.2 per cent in Coventry South. In constituencies with majorities of less than a hundred, literally every vote counts. So every additional vote cast by a young person could challenge expectations, especially as a recent survey shows university students are much more likely to vote for more progressive parties such as Labour, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.

Beyond these marginals having an average 18-24 year old population of 12 per cent, many also are home to universities. York Central, Southampton, Exeter, Lancaster and Coventry South all contain universities within their constituencies. Importantly, up and down the country student unions will be on voter registration drives. All this activity will help engage progressive young voters.

But the impact of Ukip voters switching to the Tories can’t be underestimated. Even though under 25s are more likely to vote for progressive parties, based on recent local elections results, it wouldn’t be surprising if anything between 50-75 per cent of Ukip voters vote Tory this time. The EU referendum served its purpose and Ukip is in freefall as recent polls show.

Though we found that even if 75 per cent of Ukip voters vote Tory this general election, under-25s could counteract this swing. If 18-24 year olds turned out at the national average level (66 per cent), rather than their turnout for 2015 (43 per cent), and if Labour retained their votes from 2015, 32 out of the 57 Labour-held marginals could be saved. Our calculations suggest that Lancaster and Fleetwood, Ealing Central and Acton, Blackpool South and Hove should be prime targets for mobilising young people to vote Labour.

In Tory-held marginals, they could sway results significantly too. Of the 35 Tory marginals (held with 2,000 votes or less) our analysis finds 12 that are the most susceptible to a youth mobilisation campaign. Brighton, Croydon Central, Gower, Derby North, Vale of Clwyd and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport are all ripe for the taking by Labour. The high youth populations, a strong Remain vote in the EU referendum and a weak Liberal Democrat legacy give Labour a clear opening.

These estimations should inspire young voters to realise how powerful they can be as a voter bloc. With the EU referendum fresh in minds and Brexit being a focal point, the 64 per cent of those young voters who turned out to vote in the EU referendum should feel urged to vote again.

And while younger generations have every right to be angry about politics, this time round there’s something to vote for. Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto is focused on investing heavily in current and future generations. Labour is vowing to bring back EMA, scrap university fees, increase the minimum wage to £10 an hour and build 500,000 new council homes. Policies that would be life-changing for many under-25s that disproportionately work in jobs with zero hour contracts, carry unwieldy uni debt and have little hope of owning their homes.

With the voter registration deadline just days away, under 18-24 year olds should feel more emboldened than ever to get their vote out. They could be decisive in tackling the Tories head-on. But the longer they ignore politics, the longer it’ll ignore them. Our advice: get angry, get even. Register to vote by May 22nd and vote on June 8th.