With unemployment rising again, George Osborne’s chances of becoming Prime Minister are slipping away

'Osbornomics' alone would not see the Chancellor to victory in a Tory leadership race. If his policies fail, he wouldn't even hobble to the starting line

Chancellor George Osborne holding court during a forum at the 2016 World Bank-IMF Spring Meeting in Washington (Reuters)

In a week when George Osborne made headlines for calling his opponents “economically illiterate”, today’s labour market statistics flip the focus firmly back on his own stewardship of the figures. With unemployment rising for the first time since June last year – now up to 1.7million – the Chancellor should remember that, while David Cameron’s prospects are tied to the EU referendum, his remain lashed to the economy.

On all counts, it’s been a pretty terrible few days for Osborne. Vote Leave used his Treasury assessment of Brexit to embarrass him on immigration, the political equivalent of the school bully beating you with your own fist.

Then Michael Gove, the Tory party’s Parsifal, performed a classy turn extolling the virtues of an independent Britain to remind onlookers that, when the time comes, he’s a serious alternative to Boris.

If the Chancellor has serious leadership ambitions, then the nose dive they’ve taken in recent months could become a freefall if the economy starts to falter.

Built on political savvy and sound management of the economy, Osborne’s credibility took a hit when this year’s budget shambles reminded us that his understanding of the political tides could ebb and flow. His safe handling of the economy has therefore become the crutch holding up his status as a leader in waiting.

If dole queues start growing and wages stagnate (wage growth is at its slowest since January 2015) it’s difficult to see what future Osborne can offer his party. While Osbornomics alone won’t be enough to win him the leadership, he couldn’t even hobble into the race if it’s broken.

Today’s data suggests the economic warning signs first spotted in January could be correct. The Chancellor needs to project the image of man unencumbered by the distractions of Brexit. The public, let alone his party, won’t forgive a Chancellor who takes his hands off the economy so that he can place them on his opponents.

Employment represents a central part of the success story the Conservative party has sold the country since 2010. I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve heard a minister say that “Britain has created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined”. Only last year Osborne was announcing the planned creation of two million more jobs, which would be the next step to “full employment”.

Job creation isn’t just a part of Osborne’s political identity, it is at its absolute core. Without it, the Chancellor looks just like another political fixer whose ambitions embarrass their accomplishments.

Today’s rise in unemployment should be the ice bucket that jolts Osborne and reminds him that his own future employment prospects are intimately linked to those of the British people.