Winning the vote for EMU: Saddle up, Tony, and join the Hezza cavalry

The EMU battle lines are drawn. The territory to be conquered in just four years is the support of the people. Now we know where everyone stands, the public campaign must begin, but so far there have been only muffled mumblings from the Government.

The voters stand at two-to-one against EMU. Euro-scepticism is deep-dyed in the Union flag, soaked in it through the past 18 years of sceptic government, saturated by a passionately anti-European press. Sir James Goldsmith's deadly legacy of pounds 20m spent on filling the air with Euro-phobia had its inevitable effect, with that powerful pounds 3m video through every door in the country.

Yet on the face of things, the EMU campaign should be a straight re-run of 1975, when exactly the same proportion of voters started out against joining, but swung two-to-one in favour. All the big beasts are on one side: the Government, Ashdown, Clarke, Heseltine et al. The CBI and the TUC speak with one voice. A few brave captains of industry are starting to jump up on to the parapet, waving the EMU troops on. The wise and far- sighted are beginning to present a formidable array. How could they lose?

Who's afraid of William Hague, Peter Lilley, Tony Benn, Sir Stanley Kalms or Norman Tebbit? There should be no contest here. But this raggle- taggle army has a nuclear armoury of weapons, whose exact capability we do not know, but rightly fear.

The sceptic weapon is Rupert Murdoch, who alone controls 41 per cent of newspaper readership, with Conrad Black and The Daily Mail standing shoulder-to-shoulder with him, all rabidly anti-European. Can the good guys win against their might?

The muted, strangled noises on Europe emanating from Downing Street so far spring from fear of the damage that Murdoch can inflict. But in the end the Labour leaders will have to stand up to him on this, because they have no choice.

So far, the Prime Minister has backed away from a showdown, because he thinks he can lasso Murdoch and bring him in gently on the end of a rope. He reasons that if public opinion swings behind the single currency, if the clouds of Europhobia are swept back and almost every sensible big player in the nation thinks we must join, and join soon, Murdoch wouldn't want his newspapers left stranded out among the mavericks. He always trims his views to suit his business interests in the end.

But the question is, can public opinion be changed unless the Prime Minister starts to use his government's huge public popularity to win the argument? Can we ever reach the stage where Murdoch's papers are forced to change their line unless Blair comes out fighting first? Until now, Labour has never wanted to test the state of our democracy, to see whether the government or The Sun rules.

But the time is short and the campaign to win public opinion has no real leader until the Prime Minister gets on his horse to do battle with the petty Poujadists, little Englanders and cynical manipulators of gut xenophobia. So far, only timid noises come from his camp.

Too late and too grudging, Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, has at least made joining EMU official policy, liberating the Labour Euro-enthusiasts to campaign vigorously. But the message that emerged from Tuesday's Lib- Lab constitutional committee promising to advocate the merits of Europe was a tepid rallying-cry: "The Government and the Liberal Democrats have a shared interest in making Britain less Euro-sceptical". Less Euro-sceptical? That is hardly the stuff to set hearts and minds afire. We wait for a strong lead, but Downing Street says the Prime Minister has no plans to make a speech on Europe at present.

No; so far, the Conservative rebels have the beau role in all this. The Clarke/Hezza/Curry cavalry is charging in from the wing, sabres flashing. They look brave and honourable championing the national interest above party and popularity. The more gallant they seem, the more hesitant and pusillanimous Downing Street appears. Tony Blair hasn't saddled up, and his posse are anxiously looking at their watches. He is letting others fight his battle, hoping they win it for him.

The European Movement, the nascent pro-EMU referendum campaign, is about to announce a new heavyweight team of leaders from each party. Now they need support, a mass membership, local groups and most of all money - a lot of it - to undo the years of damage.

It won't be enough to rely on frightening voters with the dangers of being left out of the single currency. Nor will it be enough to sell the immediate advantages - lower interest rates, lower mortgages, exchange rate stability, and the like. The campaign needs to generate a new warmth for the European idea itself. It must mark the end, once and for all, to Britain's recalcitrant, bad-tempered, sourly obstructive behaviour in Europe, shifting the attitude of the people as well as the habits of our politicians. This must be Armageddon for Europhobia.

We all rightly criticise the EU as presently constructed, for its democratic deficit, the CAP and myriad other faults. But none of that should stop a wholehearted pro-European campaign, for none of that can be influenced one jot by us unless we are at the heart of Europe. "A fresh start in Europe, with the credibility to achieve reform," promised Labour's manifesto. Just so. "We will give Britain leadership in Europe," it said. But when, if not now?

It is easy to understand the unease with which the Government risks gambling its huge popularity on such an unpopular cause. But there is no choice. The next election will be fought on this issue, willy-nilly. Dragging their heels will not make it go away, so they had better come out of their tents now with all the panache of the Tory rebels. With a bit of bravery, they can see off the enemy - and at the same time show Rupert Murdoch that the battle can be won without him and despite him, because in the end Tony Blair rules, OK, and it will be Tony Blair Wot Won It.