Uncomfortable questions must be faced

John Major called the leadership election hopefully to sustain his authority. It was a gamble, particularly once he was challenged by a cabinet colleague, John Redwood. The gamble has succeeded - but only just. The Prime Minister has won by the rules, and also by an additional modest margin to reinforce his authority. Redwood probably got half of the backbench votes. I am content with the result and had no affection for a second ballot and the uncertainties and further dissent it would have provided.

Inevitably, plenty of questions are raised by this leadership election, and often they imply uncomfortable answers for the Conservatives. First, there is the style of leadership. I do not believe John Major can change his innate qualities. He is a listening leader. He is anxious that government should reconcile a range of views, and he is prepared to embody compromise in his own behaviour. He is the exact opposite of Margaret Thatcher. That is why he got her job in 1990.

There are many who seek a general election leader who will be charismatic. Michael Heseltine might have provided this inspirational quality, but that option is simply no longer available. Last night's vote confirms that the leadership of the Conservatives will continue to be quiet, methodical and essentially conciliatory. I am more than content to welcome such qualities, and there are happy precedents of their success, ranging from Campbell- Bannerman to Attlee.

Will the fact that a substantial number of MPs voted against Major presage continued Tory civil war? I doubt it. The European volcano is not extinct but neither is it active. It seems highly unlikely that the single currency will be an intrusive topic over the next 18 months. Major has moved to a sceptical position on the importance of the national veto and the role of the House of Commons. In German eyes, he is settling into the role of a "bad European", and this stance will carry general Tory support.

Differences within the Conservative Party over the economy are likely to be more troublesome. There is a powerful backbench head of steam for substantial cuts in direct taxation. John Redwood cleverly exploited this. He demonstrated you can be a Fellow of All Souls and a shameless populist. He should go far.

The desire for tax cuts will have been encouraged by last night's vote. It is a highly questionable development. A balanced approach to the economy requires continued reductions in government debt; only modest tax reductions, mostly for the lower paid; and selective increases in such public spending as education. Indeed, there will have to be an open Tory debate on the tax-cut / public-spending options whatever the parrot-cries for mindless party unity.

A cabinet reshuffle will clearly follow from the re-election of John Major as leader. This would have happened anyway, but there will be a chance to give the administration a new look and a new Foreign Secretary. My hope - but not my expectation - is Malcolm Rifkind for the post.

The cabinet reshuffle will match the men with the ministries for the remainder of this parliament. The political hour-glass is running out. Indeed, it was concern for electoral survival, rather than the cosmic considerations of political philosophy, that swung the votes yesterday in Room 12.

The Tory party, having been successfully radical in the Eighties, is now seeking to return to that tradition. Europe, welfare financing, the constitution of the United Kingdom, and a contemporary setting for the market economy are all profound issues for the new radical agenda. The Tory frustration and dilemma is that they cannot be undertaken in the fag-end of the current parliament. They can be reached only by going beyond the hurdle of the 1996 general election.

John Major's new administration must therefore produce ministers well able to operate on modest budgets and objectives. In truth, they need the skills that the Government has already been obliged to practise in this near-zero majority parliament. Last night's vote has not changed these stubborn realities. It is appropriate and beneficial that John Major will continue to provide the leadership to match them.

The writer is MP for North Shropshire and a former leader of the House of Commons.