Here's how the Turkish presidential election could impact gay Pride in Istanbul next weekend

There is a connection between election results and LGBT+ Pride in Turkey although by no means a straightforward one. When the governing AKP party lost it meant forced prevention, while easy victory, at least once upon a time, meant the parade went ahead without hindrance

Pigeons fly in front of a large election poster of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul (Reuters)

The Turkish parliamentary elections on the 7 June 2015 brought about two interconnected historical outcomes: the Kurdish party HDP surpassed the 10 per cent threshold required to enter the parliament and the governing party AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years. This was a victory for the opposition including one small but vital component: the LGBT+ movement.

Three weeks later on the 28 June 2015, police prevented the Istanbul LGBT+ Pride parade from happening for the first time since its inception. From that day onwards, despite repeated attempts to walk each year, the pride parade in Istanbul was never allowed to happen again, although the protest had initially started and flourished under the AKP administration.

This seems to prove that there is a connection between election results and gay pride in Turkey although by no means a straightforward one. When the governing AKP party lost it meant forced prevention, while easy victory, at least once upon a time, meant the parade went ahead without hindrance. Therefore, it is not easy to predict how the election results today will end up affecting the Istanbul gay Pride parade this year.

Moreover, unlike a soccer game an election rarely has only two sides and a clear-cut result. This is doubly true for tense political situations, like the one Turkey finds itself in, and triply so when the presidential and parliamentary votes are taking place on the same day, for the first time.

Therefore in this election a combination of things can happen and a clear-cut victory on either side are the two most unlikely outcomes. Keeping this in mind, these are our predictions for each possible outcome:

• Erdogan is elected president in the first round, HDP can’t pass the threshold and AKP holds the majority of the parliament. This outcome seems unlikely provided the government refrains from using the state of emergency to hinder and alter the voting and counting process. But if it does happen, it is not difficult to predict that Erdogan’s iron rule will tighten and all democratic rights including the LGBT+ parade will be affected.
• Erdogan’s rival Muharrem Ince is elected president in the first round, HDP passes the threshold and AKP loses majority in parliament. This is extremely unlikely but should it happen the Pride parade in Istanbul would not only be allowed but would be turned into a celebration of the election victory.
• Erdogan is elected president in the first round, HDP enters the parliament and the AKP loses majority. Since Erdogan already declared that he will not be satisfied with such a result, he will most probably show his displeasure, among other ways, through a police crackdown on Pride.
• None of the presidential candidates can pass the 50 per cent threshold and the election for president moves on to the second round, HDP passes the threshold and AKP loses its majority in the parliament. This is the best option the opposition can realistically hope for but it will cause Erdogan to tighten his grip and fuel polarisation. Pride will most probably turn into a very symbolic and contested event, part of the propaganda for the second round. Erdogan will not allow the pride and might even call on his advocates to help prevent it, while the opposition might try to make it happen.

Of course, none of the outcomes would indicate a lasting solution to the LGBT+ situation in Turkey and we long for the time when election results no longer bear any weight on the constitutional rights of assembly.