The religious right used to be uneasy about Trump – but his dominance is now complete

Trump still has a stranglehold on the religious right. His rivals will have to peel off that support to have a shot at the Republican nomination, writes Eric Garcia

Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Bedminster, N.J. (Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

When Donald Trump first ran for president, his appeal among conservative evangelicals puzzled some outsiders, many of whom wondered how a notorious playboy who once owned casinos could ever be the choice of a party that has been dominated by the religious right for decades.

Indeed, Mr Trump had some hiccups with evangelical voters in 2016, including when he said women should be punished for having an abortion, which infuriated some leaders, who had long focused on punishing providers.

The evangelical ambivalence about the twice-divorced, thrice-married former Democrat was sufficient back then to cost Mr Trump the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, with the heavily churchgoing Hawkeye State’s delegates going to Texas Senator Ted Cruz that year.

But after he clenched the nomination and became the party’s standard-bearer against Hillary Clinton, conservative Christians held their noses and supported Mr Trump. They did so because they knew he would nominate ideologically reliable judges who’d rule the way they wanted – a promise he delivered on, with three of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v Wade confirmed on his watch.

But what seemed like a good old-fashioned shotgun wedding between Mr Trump and evangelical voters back in 2016 has since turned into a genuine love affair.

And it was clear at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s annual Road to the Majority Conference that the love affair is still blossoming.

Mr Trump’s own electoral record illustrates his dominance among the group. In 2020, exit polls showed that 75 per cent of white evangelicals voted for Mr Trump. And in a poll from last month, Mr Trump led Mr DeSantis by double-digits among evangelical voters, even as he faces criminal charges and was found liable for sexual abuse against author E Jean Carroll.

On Saturday evening, Mr Trump will take the stage to address a crowd of rapturous supporters who seem unperturbed by the scandals swirling around the former president. Ahead of Mr Trump’s keynote address, a number of other 2024 candidates, including Sen Tim Scott (R-SC), Vivek Ramaswamy, his former vice president Mike Pence and his chief rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, spoke at the conference. But none garnered as much enthusiasm as Mr Trump did – before he even spoke.

“Nothing against any of the other people that are involved or that are running, but honestly, I believe they’re doing a dress rehearsal for 2028,” Weston Martinez, of San Antonio, Texas, told The Independent. “I’ve had lunch with Ron DeSantis and, you know, great guy, fantastic guy. Nothing wrong with him. And Tim Scott, great guy.”

“Whether you like Trump or hate Trump, a lot of people (believe) the day that the FBI raided his home in Mar-a-Lago, he sealed the nomination,” he said.

While conservative Christian voters likely saw Mr Trump as a gamble when he first ran in 2016, they can now actually point to his record of implementing their goals.

“Look what he did for Israel,” Mathilda Davies told The Independent. “He moved the embassy back to Jerusalem.” For many evangelical Christians, American support for Israel is not only a matter of policy but a core tenet of their faith, particularly for some who believe the state of Israel is important for bringing about the End Times. When he ran for re-election, Mr Trump said: “You know, it’s amazing with that – the evangelicals are more excited by that than Jewish people.”

The issue of abortion remains Mr Trump’s biggest selling point among evangelicals. The Faith & Freedom conference came amid the anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson decision, which overturned the right to an abortion enshrined for half a century by Roe v Wade. Despite being a Democrat for many years and flubbing the anti-abortion talking points, evangelicals have Mr Trump to thank for the outcome they have long sought.

A number of 2024 GOP hopefuls attempted to capitalise on the anti-abortion movement’s success. Mr Scott said “thank God almighty for the Dobbs decision,” while Mr Pence chided some Republicans for being too timid on abortion and called on Republicans to embrace a ban on abortion after 15 weeks.

But to some evangelical voters, even an abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy is too lenient.

“I mean, there should be no abortion. Murder is murder,” Ms Davies said.

That doesn’t mean that other candidates aren’t trying to appeal to conservative Christian voters. Mr Ramaswamy received some of his most raucous applause lines when he addressed the crowd and said: “God is real. Unborn life is life. There are two genders.” Mr DeSantis railed against Disney and received major applause when he criticised “woke” ideology, including transgender issues.

Mr Trump’s opponents will attempt to claw back evangelical support from the former president. Ken Cuccinelli, who runs the Never Back Down super PAC, which supports Mr DeSantis and often follows him to events, seemed to imply that Mr Trump didn’t have any central beliefs.

“DeSantis is the leading fighter for us in our children. Fighting the woke mob and the corporations and President Trump is on the other side of it,” Mr Cuccinelli, who worked in the Trump administration, told The Independent.

The road to winning the Iowa Caucus for Republicans relies on winning over evangelicals. Few people understand this as well as Mr Cruz, who beat Mr Trump in the first contest in 2016 largely on the back of winning evangelical Christians.

“Oh, look, I think it’s the same thing that any candidate needs to do to win anyone’s votes, which is lay out a vision and a record that inspires the voters and lets them know that you will fight for the values and principles,” Mr Cruz told The Independent.

But Mr Cruz also knows what it’s like to have the rug pulled under him with evangelicals. In 2015, he announced his candidacy at Liberty University before the now-disgraced president Jerry Falwell Jr endorsed Mr Trump. But Mr Cruz is keeping his powder dry when it comes to the 2024 GOP primary contest.

“I’m friends with President Trump. I’m friends with Ron DeSantis. I think highly of both of them. And I have every confidence they will run vigorous campaigns and the voters will make their decision.”

But Mr DeSantis still faces an uphill battle. His polling for the most part has remained flat, as he remains GOP voters’ number-two choice and Mr Trump continues to trash him in interviews and on his Truth Social platform.

As of right now, the former president still has a strong pull with evangelical voters and the other candidates will have to use all their strength to pry them from his grasp.