The Republican Convention has driven the election odds towards a Trump victory. But it’s not over yet

I doubt the Biden campaign pays too much attention to the betting markets. But it’s a different story when it comes to the polls

It might have been one of the ugliest political events since, well, if I’m being honest, a much darker time in the middle of the last century. Political punters nonetheless think Donald Trump nailed it with the Republican Convention.

A horrifying thought? Indeed. But the American electorate dances to the beat of its own drum and political punters know that. The latter’s assessment of what the electorate made of it all has moved them to put a ton of money on the US president.

The betting markets have moved decisively in the wake of the convention. The Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, was the clear favourite going into it, but most bookies now have the two candidates level-pegging at 10/11. You can still find Trump at evens in one or two places, though you have to look hard to find the price.

The same is true on Betfair, where Trump’s implied probability of victory enjoyed an eight-point, convention-driven bump, surging from 41 per cent to 49 per cent. That’s a record.

It, ahem, trumps the previous one that was held by George W Bush after the 2004 Republican Convention when he, like Trump, was the incumbent. He saw a five-point move in his implied probability of victory.

Bush also benefited from a jump in the opinion polls, en route to a narrow but decisive victory in both the electoral college and the popular vote (by contrast to his first term).

As always, it bears repeating that political betting is banned in the US. These markets are made up of punters in other countries, although there may well be some expats among them.

Bookies will tell you that political punters are generally quite sharp. Those who play in this arena are an unusually well-informed bunch.

That being the case, the US polls over the next few days will bear close attention. The trackers, and there are several organisations producing them, still show Biden with a handy, near-double-figure lead.

Based on polling, Trump has a much bigger mountain to climb than Bush did. He is also campaigning against a very different backdrop.

Bush, in the midst of his “war on terror”, portrayed himself as a firm and decisive national security president while characterising his opponent, John Kerry, as a “flip-flopper”. It was cynical and history has been less than kind to him, justifiably given the consequences of his wars – but it worked.

Trump has sought to create domestic enemies, calling upon the culture wars while demonising those protesting against the brutal police shootings of unarmed African Americans, most recently Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Blake was left partially paralysed after repeatedly being shot in the back by a police officer.

“The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who’s best on public safety and law and order,” said outgoing presidential counsellor Kellyanne Conway, who managed Trump’s 2016 campaign.

It was an ugly statement from a woman whose husband is also stepping back from his job, in his case at the Lincoln Project; formed by disaffected Republicans, it has produced some of the most effective anti-Trump ads and has been gleefully trolling the president throughout the convention.

Biden immediately seized upon Conway’s statement, using it to claim that Trump was “rooting for more violence”.

And you know what: it will certainly help his law-and-order image among his supporters. The TV pictures from Kenosha are maybe what motivated the people on Betfair who staked £25k and £27k on Trump to win.

Of course, the X factor in all this is the pandemic, and the economic devastation it is wreaking. That’s a less favourable issue for Trump. The rate of increase in US cases has been declining recently, but the death toll is creeping up towards 200,000. It will be a bad day for the president if and when it reaches that number.

I doubt the Biden campaign pays too much attention to the betting markets. It’s a different story when it comes to the polls, however.

If they do start to show a similar move, it should be enough to blow away any complacency from his campaign, and banish the perception that he’s marching towards a thumping victory over an unpopular opponent.

If you still think Biden’s going to win, now is a pretty good time to get your money down because if he holds on to most of his polling advantage, I would expect the betting markets to correct a bit and move against Trump.