I asked DC insiders what they thought of Mitch McConnell's impeachment rules. They think he's headed for a Pyrrhic victory

'He may win the battle and lose the war'

The Senate impeachment trial began in earnest today (EPA)

The most surprising thing about Democrats' reaction to the impeachment trial rules which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will introduce on Tuesday is that they were surprised at all.

Despite McConnell’s repeated expressions of admiration for the 1999 rules under which the Senate tried then-President Bill Clinton — rules agreed following a weighty all-Senators meeting convened by then-Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MI) and then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-SD) in the opulent, historic old Senate chamber — those rules bear very little resemblance to the ones decided today. Donald Trump will be tried in the Senate at a trial which is presided over by the Chief Justice of the United States. And that’s where the similarities end.

Under the rules package devised by the Kentucky Republican, what was a multi-week affair in 1999 could be over as soon as next Wednesday. Both the House Democrats' "managers" and the Trump legal team will have 24 hours to present a case for their side, spread out over two days. Since the Senate's impeachment rules require each day to begin at 1pm, the lawyers' presentations could go on as late as 3am each day.

As for what evidence will be considered, McConnell has gone far beyond what some of his GOP colleagues have argued in terms of what will constitute the "record" on which Senators will judge Trump's fate. While the Clinton trial featured a record compiled by then-Independent Counsel — now Trump defense attorney — Kenneth Starr, McConnell's rules won't require Senators to vote on accepting the evidence already compiled by the House until both sides have presented their case and a question-and-answer period has passed.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Schumer said it was "obvious" why McConnell had waited until the eve of the trial to release his proposed rules, calling the package seemingly "designed by President Trump, for President Trump".

"It appears that Leader McConnell decided to go along with the president's desire to cover up his wrongdoing hook, line, and sinker," said Schumer, who added that his GOP counterpart's plan would result in a "rushed trial with little evidence in the dead of night”. He added that the plan was a "national disgrace" that would "go down in history as one of the very dark days of the Senate not living up to its responsibility".

While Schumer said he intends to offer amendments which would provide for the compulsion of documents and witnesses testimony, it's unlikely anything he offers could garner the requisite four Republican votes to take effect.

This passage of McConnell's Trump-friendly rules package seem like they will mark yet another example of the ruthless manner in which he's wielded command of his GOP majority. But in actuality, what looks like a tactical victory for Trump could be a strategic loser which will leave McConnell sitting in what is now Schumer's office a year from now.

"McConnell is a shrewd guy, but he may be putting his vulnerable Republicans in a more difficult spot than he thinks," one veteran Senate staffer told me, who added that McConnell's decision to put forth such a one-sided set of rules would force incumbent Republicans like Colorado's Cory Gardner, North Carolina's Thom Tillis, and Maine's Susan Collins into taking a position that could cost them their seats in November.

The staffer added that McConnell's reputation as a shrewd and accurate vote counter means he most likely knows he has the votes to pass his rules package, but predicted that a victory for the president's side would end up looking like a "whitewash" to voters.

Joe Walsh, the onetime Illinois Tea Party firebrand who is mounting a long-shot primary challenge against President Trump, said Senate Republicans will pay a price for putting on such a one-sided show.

"This may be a Pyrrhic victory if Mitch McConnell does what he wants to do," Walsh told me. "Trump will be acquitted before the state of the union, he will thump his chest, and I believe the vast majority of the American people will then kick Republicans in the ass come November."

Walsh said McConnell's decision to push a Trump-friendly set of rules for the president's trial appeared to be the result of a conscious decision to adopt Trump's all-base campaign strategy.

If vulnerable Republicans like Collins or Gardner say they want a fair trial, Walsh explained, they'll hear from Trump's — and their — political base.

But the opposite is also true, he cautioned: "If they do what McConnell wants and they just do whatever Trump wants, whatever Trump wants, they're going to hear it in a general election from everybody but their base."

"Trump firmly believes — and he's a dumb ass — but he firmly believes because [he] won in [2016] [he] can just fire up [his] people and get [his] people out to vote and… win a narrow victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and I think McConnell in the Senate [is] making the same bet," Walsh continued, adding that based on Democrats' winning results in 2018 and the myriad special elections since then, the Trump-McConnell base strategy is a losing one.

Making a similar prediction was Jeff Blattner, who formerly served as chief counsel to the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Blattner said a tactician like McConnell most likely has the votes to pass his rules package, but it won't be as helpful a vote for the Senators taking it as it will be for the president.

"He [McConnell] may win the battle and lose the war," he said.