What Donald Trump’s trial date means for the 2024 election

A judge set the court date for long after the primaries, meaning that he has plenty of time to rally his supporters

Another day, another wrench thrown into the Republican presidential primary. On Friday, US District Judge Aileen Cannon issued an order announcing Donald Trump’s court date for his trial for charges related to the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice will take place on 20 May 2024.

On the surface, that might make Mr Trump wince because of the fact that it denies his request to delay the trial until after the 2024 presidential election. Still, it means that Mr Trump’s legal troubles will make him the centre of attention within the GOP primary and his court case will entirely define that contest as well as the general election.

While campaign season is in full swing right now, the actual contests do not formally begin until January when the Iowa caucuses kick off. That means that for the next five or so months, Republican primary voters will ask the likes of Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, former vice president Mike Pence, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Sen Tim Scott about their thoughts on the pending Trump trial.

Usually, a competitor facing a brutal trial would allow a candidate to make mincemeat out of the frontrunner in the race. They would say that the candidate won’t be best placed to beat President Joe Biden on the trail because he’ll be too busy in deposition.

But my time on the road following Republican candidates shows the exact opposite happens. As I wrote last month, North Carolina’s GOP convention happened just as Mr Trump’s indictment was announced and the former president, Mr Pence and Mr DeSantis happened to all be at the event.

But despite the fact that Mr DeSantis built a reasonable amount of buzz around himself, Mr Trump’s legal troubles made him a sympathetic figure to many. Local Republican activists now see him as a victim of unjust persecution by an overly zealous “deep state” and view it as a plot to take Mr Trump out because they think he is the best candidate to beat Mr Biden.

If anything, Republicans, including Mr DeSantis, had to spend time talking about the Justice Department becoming “weaponised” against Mr Trump. Even Mr Pence, who could have died on January 6 as a pro-Trump mob descended on the Capitol, said Mr Trump’s indictment was a bad day for America.

With a court date set now, expect this dynamic to repeat itself throughout the year. Similarly, because his court case is so late in the primary calendar, long after the Iowa Caucuses and after Super Tuesday, even if Republican presidential candidates wanted to use his legal troubles to hammer him, they would not have the opportunity to use news about the case as cannon fodder.

If the court date were held earlier, or even if a verdict were to be made midway through the contest, it might offer Republicans a chance to blunt Mr Trump’s momentum and get another candidate up front. But now, no such thing will happen. In short, a court date after most of the contests are decided means Republicans are stuck with Mr Trump.

That being said, it also means that Mr Trump will have to deal with the dueling duties of hitting the campaign trail and appearing in court. While it will give him plenty of ammunition to encourage his own base to turn out, it might prove to be radioactive with many voters he needs to bring over to his side.

Meanwhile, if Mr Trump is indeed the nominee, Mr Biden’s campaign will inevitably use every detail of the court case to make the argument that he is uniquely unqualified for the White House. Essentially, this allows Mr Biden to run not as an unpopular incumbent, which he still is according to his dismal approval ratings, but rather as a challenger and a bulwark trying to stop a lawless former president from reassuming office.

Essentially, by holding the court date right as the primary winds down but as the general election tees up, Judge Cannon has deprived Mr Trump’s Republican opponents of an advantage while handing one to Mr Biden.