Why postponing the US presidential election would now be a good idea

There is a stark difference between what might happen with the office of the presidency and the election itself

You don’t have to be an ardent Donald Trump supporter  to feel very sorry indeed for the president and for the first lady, and to wish them well. 

The Trumps’ families and friends, like those of so many others stricken with Covid-19 during this pandemic, will be desperately worried, and no-one can know what the future holds. Fairness demands that preparations to postpone the presidential election be made, if only for a few weeks. 

A result needs to be legally determined by the time the electoral college formally meets on 14 December  An act of Congress would be needed to change the date of either the election or the meeting of the electoral college.

The concerns about mail-in ballots were exaggerated and partisan; the health and viability of a candidate (and possibly both), is a real threat to the democratic legitimacy of the contest. The situation is unprecedented.  

There is a stark difference between what might happen with the office of the presidency and the election itself. The procedure as to what will happen to the presidency is actually very clear - any movement of election day would not change the fact the Constitution is explict about the beginning and end of a president’s term. 

The 25th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States sets out in precise detail what happens in the event that a president becomes incapacitated, permanently or temporarily. The vice president, Mike Pence, would assume the duties of the presidency, either as acting president or as president. It is reversible. That can be done voluntarily by a president formally requesting it; or otherwise via Congress and the cabinet deciding, depending on the circumstances. 

One way or another, the executive branch will continue to function, albeit with some uncertainties and inevitable disruption. Although the 25th Amendement does not affect the election process, they are separate elements.

If Trump returns to health and wins the election then this crisis resolved itself. If he is healthy and loses he’s indicated he will challenge the result - this is also already clear. The same goes for a Biden victory. But if Trump is incapacitated but still on the ballot, and wins, what then? 

It is unlikely given the Under Republican National Committee (RNC) has the power to decide if Trump’s name should be on the ballot paper, if circumstances change. Under RNC  rules, the chair of the committee can replace Trump on the ballot without the need to move the election. The progress of the president’s recovery in the next ten days therefore will go a long way to determining that. As the UK has witnessed with Boris Johnson, previous robust good health and a bullish demeanour is no guarantee of swift recovery.  

There is of course the chance that Joe Biden might also be infected, which would have the potential to create an even more chaotic situation. The election of the president, already in extraordinary circumstances, has to be free and fair and the voters have to know who they are putting into the White House. 

There will be voters, for example, who would vote for Pence for president - if he were placed at the top of the Republican ticket - who’d never consider backing Trump. There might be enough of them to overturn Biden’s current poll lead over Trump. 

That democratic imperative will win out. If Trump fails to make the speedy return to normal all should rush for, then all bets should be off.