How the Good Friday Agreement will stop Trump’s post-Brexit trade deal in its tracks

The US president may believe that his force of personality can see the deal through. He’d be mistaken

Donald Trump is clear that the US and UK will agree a “phenomenal trade deal” and Downing Street has also spoken positively about an agreement – it is the main reason a state visit invitation was extended to the White House.

But amid all the bluster about whether the NHS is on the table, off the table or even something Donald Trump remotely recognises, one fact remains: it is the issue of the Irish border that will likely decide the fate of a US-UK trade deal.

The Good Friday Agreement holds a special place in the hearts of many Irish-Americans given the role their country played in the talks, and any move that could harm the progress made in the wake of that accord will be resisted.

Trump has suggested that Britain should walk away from EU talks without better terms, the hard Brexit that both Downing Street and the EU say they don’t want.

The Irish backstop, an insurance policy to keep the border open, is one of the sticking points of the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal scenario would make a hard border more likely.

Democrats have been very clear in multiple meetings with officials and trips to the UK and Ireland that any hardening of the border will not be tolerated, backing the declarations of Irish ministers that a harder border would damage the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.

“We must ensure that nothing happens in the Brexit discussions that imperils the Good Friday accord ... including, but not limited to, the seamless border,” the top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi told the Dáil in April.

She said on a trip to the border that Britain should forget about a UK-US trade deal if Brexit involves a harder Irish border.

“That’s just not on the cards if there’s any harm done to the Good Friday accords,” she said. Brexiteers should not see a US trade deal as “any kind of consolation or comfort to them” Ms Pelosi said, but made clear that congress was not seeking to take sides over Brexit, more the Good Friday Agreement represented “values” that should not be lost.

The US congress must pass any trade deal for it to come into effect, with the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee having jurisdiction over trade matters. Objections could put any US-UK trade deal in negotiation hell for months.

With Democrats in control of the House of Representatives, they would usually be the first gatekeepers of any deal. Democrat congressman Richard Neal, an Irish-American and the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee said in Washington that the Good Friday Agreement has “worked better than any of us anticipated” and it must be kept intact.

Democrat senator Chris Murphy has said that congress will have the “final say” on any trade deal and there will be “no chance” of a deal with a hard border.

It is not just Democrats: New York congressman Peter King said that it is not a “parochial Irish issue” and that it is “important” a soft border be maintained.

Donald Trump may believe that his force of personality and constant gloating will ensure a trade deal with the UK, on his terms. But depending on what happens up until October, or beyond, that remains to be seen.

Any US-UK agreement will likely be decided by the roughly 310 miles of border – and its 275-odd crossing points – between Northern Ireland and the Republic and the around 1.2 miles between the White House and the United States Capitol. The fate of the deal is out of the president’s hands.