Trump was better than expected in the final debate. But the numbers say it won’t be enough

The president needed a miracle, and even if he drew with Biden last night, the fact is that’s unlikely to save him

Trump taunted Biden during the debate, asking the former vice president who built the cages while Biden sidestepped the comments (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The first US presidential debate descended into insults, interruptions, and chaos. So, expectations for Thursday night’s contest between President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden were low — leading many to judge the debate, a relatively tame affair, a success for both candidates.

Trump interrupted much less, largely stayed away from insults and name-calling, and was respectful to the moderator, Kristen Welker, who did a good job keeping the night’s events in check. The president had a few good moments on the substance, too.

Trump stressed the need to reignite the economy and reopen society despite the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We’re not going to shut down and we have to open our schools,” he said. “The fear cannot be worse than the problem itself and that’s what’s happening.”

“These are businesses that are dying, Joe,” Trump finished. “You can’t do that to people.”

He also attacked Biden over his support for more than doubling the federal minimum wage, in a hit that likely landed well, given that so many businesses are already on the brink of collapse and couldn’t afford a huge spike in labor costs right now.

“How are you helping your small businesses when you’re forcing wages? What’s going to happen, and what’s been proven to happen is when you do that many of these small businesses fire many of their employees,” Trump said.

While the president is widely viewed as having mishandled the pandemic, voters do trust him over Biden to restore the economy to the pre-pandemic heights it was reaching. And with tens of millions unemployed and millions more slipping into poverty, people are sorely feeling the hurt right now.

There were certainly some mishaps from the president.

For instance, he falsely claimed that Joe Biden supports socialized healthcare and would eliminate all 180 million private health insurance plans Americans currently hold. This isn’t true — Biden has explicitly repudiated the plans of Bernie Sanders and other Democrats who would actually have done this. Instead, the candidate favors a “public option” where the federal government offers a government-run insurance plan alongside private insurers to compete.

So, too, President Trump’s attacks to paint Biden as corrupt and cite his son’s scandals were largely ineffective. The conservative base might have appreciated the president’s attacks, but most Americans who don’t watch Sean Hannity on Fox News likely had no idea what he was talking about.

And, frankly, even when there is substance to some of his criticisms, Trump is not a credible messenger on corruption given his own business entanglements and family members who have seemingly profited from his presidency.

Meanwhile, Biden acquitted himself well in last night’s debate. He came across as assured and coherent, reassuring voters and uncutting the narrative that the 77-year-old is declining mentally.

Biden’s strongest moments came when he stressed unity and healing.

“I don’t look at [Covid-19] in terms of blue states and red states,” Biden said. “They’re all the United States. They’re all Americans.”

“I will say [after my election], I’m an American president,” he continued. “I represent all of you, whether you voted for me or against me, and I’m going to make sure that you’re represented. I’m going to give you hope.”

So, both candidates acquitted themselves fairly well last night. Some wobbly Democrats or uneasy Republicans may have seen what they needed in their candidate to pull the lever, but nothing revolutionary or monumental changed.

This bodes extremely well for Joe Biden. He entered last night’s debate way, way ahead in the polls — so a detente leaves him the strong favorite.

Biden is up by 8 percent in the RealClearPolitics average for national polls. Of course, we don’t go by a national vote, but Biden is also ahead in key swing states such as Arizona, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia. And a whopping 50 million people and counting have already voted, meaning that some of Biden’s current lead is already locked into the final results.

All signs so far suggest that the final presidential debate will almost certainly not disrupt Biden’s advantage. A YouGov snap poll found 54 percent thought Biden “won” the debate, while a CNN poll found 53 percent saying the same. Of course, instant reaction polls are a rough tool, but any way you spin it, the debate was, at best, a draw for the president.

In short, Trump needed a miracle at last night’s debate. He did much better than last time, but there’s no reason to believe he got anything out of it that can save his campaign.

Brad Polumbo (@Brad_Polumbo) is a conservative American political journalist and host of the Breaking Boundaries podcast