The strange case of Trudeau's disappearing finance minister — and the left-wing Canadian future he was sacrificed for

In this pandemic, amid the chaos, death and meltdown, it seems to have occurred to Justin Trudeau that, somehow, he has stumbled into his moment

What's the real explanation for this strange series of events? (AFP via Getty Images)

A shakeup occurred in Canada today, with the current session of parliament terminated and the appointment of the country’s first female finance minister.

Some may say that shakeup began Monday night, with the departure of the sitting finance minister, Bill Morneau — suddenly, messily and rather inexplicably. Some may say it began even earlier, when whispers of a sacking swirled in the media.

But really, it began months before any of that, when a bat-borne virus from China spiralled out of control, locked down the world, and so lifted the fortunes of a minority government in Canada with what had previously been an uncertain future.

Morneau’s quitting mid-pandemic may seem ill-timed, yet it is precisely because of Covid-19 and not in spite of it that the country changed finance ministers. In times of crisis, countries often see a shift toward bigger, greater government. Canada’s latest shakeup represents a prime example of that. The country is poised for great change in the days ahead, and losing Morneau is the first hint of it.

It is otherwise hard to find a better explanation for what happened.

Morneau resigned Monday night in a press conference announced less than an hour beforehand, with a rationale that has baffled observers. He never intended to stay in politics for more than two terms, Morneau said. He gave the reason for his departure as wanting to put his name forward to become the next secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development — an ambition he has scarcely mentioned before, if at all, and a largely non-public process for which announcing candidacy is unnecessary.

Surely that can’t be the real reason, right? After all, in the weeks beforehand, all sorts of leaks flowed to media about various moments of friction between Morneau and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But then again, the news seemed mundane. In one instance, Morneau wanted to tie pandemic income support to the minimum wage, while Trudeau wanted to give slightly more to make it the nice round number of $2,000 per month. Trudeau got his way. The finance minister never undermined his boss, publicly or privately, not like how some of the White House resignations down south happen.

To be sure, there was indeed a scandal with Morneau involving a charity, but Trudeau himself had had a vastly bigger presence in that same scandal. It was more a Trudeau scandal than a Morneau one.

No specific thing Morneau has said or done properly explains the manner of his departure from government Monday night — the man quit not only his cabinet post, but also his seat as a lawmaker. Rather, it was who Morneau is, the totality of everything that he has said and done and what he represents, that did him in.

Morneau's departure points to something bigger, which itself points to something even bigger: Canada, already governed by the Liberal Party, is poised to veer farther left, toward an even larger government and more progressive policies, and that is part of a similar shift around the world amid the pandemic. Spain’s leftist government, for example, has taken over private hospitals and said it wants to make universal basic income “permanent.”

Income taxes were introduced in Canada during the First World War, universal healthcare during the Second. They never went away. Already, leaks to media have indicated Trudeau wanted to take advantage of the pandemic to do as previous governments did amid crises — to effect the sort of progressive change that will similarly last.

For such a move, Morneau does not necessarily make for bad optics, but getting rid of him makes for excellent optics. (Morneau said he resigned on his own accord, but when Trudeau was asked on Tuesday if he asked his finance minister to remain, he dodged the question.)

Morneau is, after all, scion of one baron and son-in-law to another, and once got in trouble for allegedly hiding a French villa. The former finance minister was, as one opposition politician put it, “old Canadian money.” As early as two years ago, a journalist wrote of Morneau: “I suspect it’s easy to just plain hate him, no matter your political leanings. He’s rich. Too rich, even.” Morneau is a symbolic stone in the shoe to Trudeau’s grand plan.

And Trudeau does have a grand plan, in addition to his history of ditching high-level officials when they become liabilities. Trudeau, let's not forget, clinched power in 2015 by outflanking the farther-left New Democrats. On Tuesday, Trudeau named his lieutenant Chrystia Freeland as the new finance minister, a former journalist notable pre-politics for writing a book about the widening wealth gap. Trudeau was aiming for what media have called a "reset."

Throughout the last five years, Trudeau has not had an easy time in power, with scandal and controversy arising from alleged backroom tactics and behaviour in sharp contrast to the “sunny ways” mantra of his election night speech — really, he was just wrestling in the mud like everyone else. Little of all that promise associated with Trudeau actually materialized.

If one were to hazard a guess at how Trudeau assesses himself: the prime minister no doubt feels little fault — he likely feels he has a grand vision and a deep commitment to changing the world, albeit one that has been derailed by all the bumps along the way. In this pandemic, amid the chaos, death and meltdown, it must have occurred to him that, somehow, he had stumbled into his moment.

There is a non-zero possibility Trudeau will get in his own way yet again, but who knows? Maybe the sort of Canada that the world expected when he took power in 2015 will finally show itself a little.

Ethan Lou is the author of Field Notes from a Pandemic: A Journey through a World Suspended, to be published fall 2020 by Signal/McClelland and Stewart