Theresa May no-confidence vote result: What it means for Brexit

The prime minister will claim she now has a mandate to finish Brexit, but she still has a huge fight on her hands

Theresa May has survived, but still has a huge fight on her hands. She wanted to win the support of two in three Conservative MPs but fell just short. It is hardly a ringing endorsement and it will not help her in her most urgent task – winning Commons approval for her Brexit deal.

After another dramatic and exhausting day, the prime minister will get no respite: she will seek concessions from the 27 EU leaders at their Brussels summit over the next two days.

May will claim she now has a mandate to complete the Brexit process. But how will the result of the confidence vote affect it?

May’s Brexit deal

The PM will plough on with her deal, in the hope of winning EU “reassurances” to make the proposed backstop to prevent a hard Irish border more palatable for Tory MPs. She has promised the Commons vote on the deal she postponed on Tuesday before 21 January.

Significantly, she told MPs on Wednesday that concerns about the backstop “should be addressed in a way that has legal force”. This was a recognition that Tory MPs fear warm words will not prevent the UK being trapped in the backstop’s customs union, and would have less weight than the legally binding withdrawal agreement. But her stated goal might come back to haunt her.

In her talks with EU leaders this week, May sought a concession in line with a government-inspired amendment tabled for the stalled debate by Tory MP Sir Hugo Swire. It would give parliament more say before the backstop took effect, and seek further EU assurances that it would be temporary and be superseded within a year by a long-term UK-EU trade deal. The Commons would also have to take account of the views of the Northern Ireland assembly and executive – a demand from the Democratic Unionist Party. However, the two bodies have been suspended for almost two years. And the move would not address directly the DUP’s main criticism that the backstop would mean different regulatory systems in Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

The view from Brussels

There was dismay in EU governments and in Brussels when May delayed Tuesday’s vote on the deal. They were braced for her to lose it, and prepared to offer “clarifications” to help her win a second one. One EU source told me: “Our patience is wearing thin. People have had enough of the UK changing its position.”

The EU was never going to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement – and has now told May so in no uncertain terms. Brussels officials fear the delay in London increases the risk of an “accidental no-deal exit” in March. They worry that Tory Eurosceptics will pocket any EU “sweeties” and then demand more. “We want a guarantee [from May] that whatever we do will ensure the deal is approved by the House of Commons,” one EU diplomat said.

It is not a promise May can make. More than 110 Tory MPs have criticised her deal, and the vote had to be shelved as she would have lost it by a three-figure margin.

What will Brussels offer?

May insisted she has made “some progress” this week but declined to spell it out, conceding that “further discussions” are needed. That is something of an understatement.

Now the EU knows she is staying in Downing Street, it will play ball. It does not want a no-deal departure and so will look at ways to meet the Swire amendment. But Brussels is unlikely to promise that the backstop would not last for more than a year. It will continue to resist the time-limited and unilateral UK exit mechanism sought by many Tories, arguing that an insurance policy cannot be diluted.

One possible sweetener would be a declaration by the European Council, the 27 national leaders, which would not change the withdrawal agreement but would sit alongside it. This method was used by Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, to overcome a “no” vote in a referendum against a trade and security agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Crucially, he gave fellow EU leaders the guarantee that their pledges would work.

A soft Brexit?

“Reassurances” by the EU can probably win round some Tory critics of May’s deal by next month. But game-changing concessions look unlikely, and so May could still suffer a heavy defeat. She would then come under pressure from her cabinet to adopt a plan B. Seeing off her critics in the European Research Group would strengthen the hand of ministers such as Amber Rudd who would want May to pivot to a Norway-plus deal – inside the single market and a customs union. If May finally faced down her party’s Eurosceptics, she could reach out to pro-EU Labour MPs. Other parties including the DUP might also support Norway-plus. Its supporters believe there would be a Commons majority for it.

What chance of no deal?

May’s survival reduces the prospect of a no-deal departure. Although she insists the UK will leave the EU on 29 March, she might yet extend the Article 50 process by a few months to get Brexit “over the line” rather than crash out without a deal.

If the Commons rejects May’s withdrawal agreement, some cabinet ministers would press for a “managed no-deal” or “orderly exit”. But this might struggle to pass the Commons and would not solve the Irish border problem.

A Final Say referendum?

Now that May cannot face another party confidence vote for a year, many MPs predict an impasse in parliament, with all Brexit options being voted down. The result of the confidence vote shows that Tory MPs are deeply split; the wounds will not heal quickly. A growing number of Labour MPs want a Final Say referendum, including some who previously backed a Norway-style agreement. Although May is adamantly opposed to a referendum, cabinet ministers are increasingly attracted to the idea. It might become the only way to escape the Brexit maze.