These are the cabinet members left who are likely to walk – and those who will definitely stick with May

On a scale of zero to five, these are the people left in Theresa May’s government who want to oust her, whose careers depend on her, and who might soon challenge her for leadership

Two cabinet ministers, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, have resigned over the draft withdrawal agreement that Theresa May has reached with the EU. Will her other ministers remain loyal, or might some of them join the rebellion against the Brexit deal? Let’s look at the likelihoods.

David Lidington – Cabinet Office minister

De facto deputy prime minister. Strong Remainer and former minister for Europe who played behind-the-scenes role in brokering the withdrawal agreement. Urged cabinet meeting on Wednesday not to “get hung up” on how the UK could exit the customs backstop to prevent a hard Irish border. Ultra-loyal to May, will stick with her.

Resignation risk rating (out of five): zero

Philip Hammond – chancellor

Leader of cabinet’s pro-European wing. Has encouraged May to safeguard trade with the EU, and is therefore happier with the deal than several cabinet colleagues. Fortunes tied closely to May. Lacks support to run for leadership.

Resignation risk: zero

Sajid Javid – home secretary

Voted Remain in 2016 referendum despite his Eurosceptic leanings. Now a keen Brexiteer. Has consistently stood up to May in cabinet meetings. At Wednesday’s five-hour session, he questioned whether May was right to argue the deal is as good at it gets, and urged her to consider further negotiations with the EU. Ambitious. A frontrunner to succeed May if she is toppled.

Resignation risk: 3/5

Jeremy Hunt – foreign secretary

Remainer who briefly supported a Final Say referendum on the Brexit deal after the 2016 vote. Now seen as a born-again Brexiteer. Criticised some elements of the deal at Wednesday’s meeting and questioned whether the Commons would approve it. Likely unity candidate in next Tory leadership election.

Resignation risk: 3/5

Gavin Williamson – defence secretary

2016 Remainer now firmly in Eurosceptic camp despite his closeness to May, who handed him a surprise promotion from chief whip. Knows the parliamentary arithmetic as well as anyone and doubts a majority of MPs will back the deal. Liked by the DUP after striking “confidence and supply” agreement with them after last year’s general election. His leadership ambitions have been dented by his time at the Ministry of Defence.

Resignation risk: 2/5

David Gauke – justice secretary

Remainer in 2016 and former Treasury minister who supports the Treasury’s desire to see the UK stick close to the EU. May loyalist and minister for sticky media wickets who was sent out to promote the deal after Wednesday’s cabinet session.

Resignation risk: zero

Matt Hancock – health and social care secretary

Rising cabinet star and 2016 Remainer who is now a keen Brexiteer. Reportedly warned cabinet meeting that a no-deal Brexit next March would mean that the supply of life-saving medicines could not be guaranteed. Admitted in public that crashing out was “not pretty” for healthcare. Former chief of staff to George Osborne but now disagrees with him on Brexit. Possible future leadership contender.

Resignation risk: 2/5

Greg Clark – business secretary

Along with Hammond, helped persuade May of the need for frictionless trade with the EU to protect UK business. Working hard to protect foreign investment in UK. May loyalist on whom she can rely to promote the deal.

Resignation risk: zero

Liam Fox – international trade secretary

Long-standing Eurosceptic tipped to resign more than any other minister. His friendship with May has kept him inside the tent so far. But the UK-wide customs arrangement under the proposed backstop will call into question Britain’s ability to strike trade deals around the world – and thus his ability to do his job.

Resignation risk: 4/5

Damian Hinds – education secretary

A Remainer in 2016 who is seen as a member of the cabinet’s pro-EU wing. Quiet start at the Department for Education since winning promotion to the cabinet in January. Will remain loyal to May and try to sell her deal.

Resignation risk: zero

Michael Gove – environment secretary

Along with Boris Johnson, headed the Vote Leave campaign that won the 2016 referendum against the odds. Sacked from the cabinet by May when she became prime minister but made a surprise return a year later. Only Brexiteer to fully support the deal at Wednesday’s meeting, but did so “with a heavy heart”. Argues that while the deal is not perfect, it should be supported to “get Brexit over the line” in March, and can be improved later. Ominously for May, reportedly turned down job of Brexit secretary after Raab’s resignation.

Resignation risk: 3/5

James Brokenshire – housing secretary

Former Northern Ireland secretary who returned to the cabinet in April after a spell out for treatment for lung cancer. May loyalist who served under her at the Home Office. Told Wednesday’s meeting that the prime minister should “follow her judgment.”

Resignation risk: zero

Chris Grayling – transport secretary

Eurosceptic who campaigned for Leave vote in 2016. Loyal to May and appealed in vain to Brexiteers not to pre-judge the withdrawal agreement before reading it, when news it had been reached broke on Tuesday. But will not like the detail of it.

Resignation risk: 3/5

Baroness Evans of Bowes Park – leader of the House of Lords

A Eurosceptic who joined the criticism of the deal at Wednesday’s session. A friend of Nick Timothy, May’s former joint chief of staff, who has condemned the deal as a “capitulation” by the prime minister.

Resignation risk: 3/5

David Mundell – Scottish secretary

Joined the other 12 Scottish Tory MPs in expressing concern that EU fishermen might still have access to UK waters, despite May’s pledge to end the common fisheries policy. But denied he would resign and accused Raab of being a “carpetbagger” who was manoeuvring for the Tory leadership.

Resignation risk: 2/5

Alun Cairns – Welsh secretary

Loyal to May, he will defend the deal.

Resignation risk: zero

Karen Bradley – Northern Ireland secretary

Close May ally who worked under her at the Home Office. Will have a role in trying to allay the DUP’s concerns that Northern Ireland would have different single market regulations to the rest of the UK under the deal.

Resignation risk: zero

Penny Mordaunt – international development secretary

A 2016 Leave campaigner who on Wednesday urged May to “dig in” and fight for more concessions from the EU. She also called for Tory MPs to be given a free vote on the deal – a suggestion rebuffed by the prime minister. Widely seen as the most likely cabinet member to quit next. Possible dark horse in next Tory leadership race.

Resignation risk: 5/5

Jeremy Wright – culture secretary

Former attorney general was surprise appointment to Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. Loyalist who is unlikely to rock the boat.

Resignation risk: zero

Brandon Lewis – Conservative party chairman

Backed Remain in 2016 but would now vote Leave in another referendum. His job requires ultra-loyalty to May and she will hope he will try to rally Tory MPs behind her if they trigger a vote of confidence in her as party leader.

Resignation risk: 1/5