We should pay attention to the Taiwan elections (the Russians certainly are)

From China to Ukraine – and even the US – the impact of this weekend’s elections could be far-reaching, writes Mary Dejevsky. The 19-million-strong electorate holds in its hands the future of peace in Asia and beyond

Opposition presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih visiting a market during a campaign visit in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Wednesday (AFP/Getty)

A reasonable argument can be made that every nationwide election has implications and consequences that transcend national borders. But this is true many times over for the votes that will be cast in Taiwan on Saturday, where an electorate of some 19 million people potentially holds in its hands the future of peace in Asia and beyond. In strictly national terms, the Taiwanese face a familiar choice. They are voting both for a new president and for a new parliament, with three main candidates and parties to choose from, and the issue is, as ever, relations with China.

The current vice-president and deputy leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, is the continuity candidate, favouring de facto, if not de jure, independence for Taiwan and close relations with the United States. The main opposition candidate, Hou Yu-ih, is mayor of New Taipei City and from the Kuomintang (KMT) – whose leaders fled China after losing the civil war to the communists in 1949. The KMT accepts the concept of a single China but also supports a separate Taiwan. The third candidate, Ko Wen-je, is from the five-year-old Taiwan People’s Party, which also favours closer relations with Beijing but is seen as having more youthful appeal. A few smaller parties are also contesting the parliamentary elections.

Until recently, the presumption was a relatively easy victory for vice-president Lai. But the last permitted pre-election polls, last week, showed the gap between the DPP and the KMT narrowing to almost nothing, with the TPP a complicating factor that could tip the balance either way.