Who we will be watching from the press gallery during Biden’s State of the Union address

Who claps and who stays seated will tell us a lot about how divided government will work

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) scream "Build the Wall" as U.S. President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress (Getty Images)

President Joe Biden on Tuesday will deliver his first address to Congress since Republicans took the House of Representatives.

More importantly, Mr Biden’s annual address comes as Congress begins its negotiations on the debt limit in earnest. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who will sit behind his fellow Californian Kamala Harris as Mr Biden speaks, tried to pre-empt Mr Biden on Monday evening by giving an address that most of the networks largely avoided and many otherwise panned.

The State of the Union is one of the rare moments where members are not filing in and out of the chamber but rather are a captive audience to the president. That means it’s a great place to people watch.

While Mr Biden addresses the nation, how various members react will be just as important. I’ll be perched in the press gallery, which is prime real estate for watching members’ reactions. Here’s who we’re watching tonight as Mr Biden comes to Congress.

Marjorie, Matt and Lauren: Last year, Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado made headlines when she interrupted Mr Biden’s address while he was talking about burn pits and losing his son Beau Biden. She did so while sitting next to fellow bomb-thrower Marjorie Taylor Greene, who, along with Matt Gaetz, created the pro-Trump triumvirate in the House. But since then, the fellowship has split. Ms Greene broke from other arch-conservatives when she backed Mr McCarthy’s speaker’s bid, while Mr Gaetz and Ms Boebert’s intransigence nearly caused a fistfight late into the evening last month during the speaker vote. Despite the fact that Ms Boebert nearly lost her seat in Colorado’s 3rd District, she seems uninterested in pivoting to the center and she and Ms Greene reportedly got into a shouting match in the bathroom during the speaker vote. Where they choose to sit will show whether conservatives can put up a united front against Democrats and Republicans they see as RINOs.

The Squad: The coterie of progressive Democrats who sought to pull the party leftward is now facing their first Congress where they are in the minority party. At the same time, the group composed of Representatives Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan; Cori Bush of Missouri, New York’s Jamaal Bowman and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also saw their ranks grow when Representatives Greg Casar of Texas, Maxwell Frost of Florida, Summer Lee of Pennsylvania and Delia Ramirez of Illinois, won their primaries last year. Last week, House Republicans voted to remove Representative Omar from the House Foreign Affiars Committee, but Democrats stood behind her steadfastly and no Democrat defected.

The family of Tyre Nichols, who was brutally beaten by Memphis police, will be a guest of First Lady Jill Biden. This has led to some whispers about Congress taking up police reform once again, but we will be keeping an eye on the members to see if they think Mr Biden’s words on police accountability will warrant an applause from them.

Moderate Republicans (and George Santos): Republicans only have a 10-seat majority that will likely be whittled down to nine after a special election in Virginia. That means Mr McCarthy will need to lean heavily on moderate Republicans or Republicans in districts that voted for Mr Biden for any deal should any conservatives defect on a debt limit deal. They likely won’t applaud for everything, but their applause on certain topics might show the prospect for bipartisan agreement. One person also from a Biden district? Embattled Representative George Santos. While he has defiantly refused to resign, if he expects to hold on to his seat, he will need to vote for some measures Democrats like. The same also goes for Republican senators, who might need to become the adults in the room to broker a compromise between the cantankerous House conservatives and the White House. This would include Senators like Mitt Romney and Thom Tillis. Similarly, Senator Susan Collins is the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, making her key to any deal. That leads us to her two buddies.

Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema: The two members of the Senate Democratic caucus that aggravate them the most might be key to making any deal to avoid a calamitous crash. Ms Sinema of Arizona, who defected from the Democratic Party to become an independent, is a longtime friend and workout buddy of Mr McCarthy. Mr Manchin, who hasn’t said whether he will seek re-election in a staunchly red state, has stressed bipartisan agreement throughout the duration of his tenure in the Senate. When they applaud and when could preview what sort of dealmaking they support going forward.