Sunak’s focus on small boats has shone a spotlight on Tory failure

What should have been a banner week for the Tories has instead highlighted how ineffective their asylum policy has been, writes Andrew Grice

There have been delays in moving migrants to the Bibby Stockholm barge (PA Wire)

The government’s policy on asylum is driven not by the Home Office, but by Downing Street. Further tensions between them have emerged during what is called "small boats week" on the government’s communications grid.

Things have not gone according to plan. Daily headline-seeking announcements during parliament’s summer recess, detailing tough action against illegal migration, should have been easy pickings. But delays in migrants moving on to the Bibby Stockholm, the giant barge moored in Portland, were followed by a clumsy Home Office suggestion that asylum seekers could be sent 4,000 miles to Ascension Island for their claims to be processed – and was slapped down by an irritated Number 10.

The story eclipsed the headline the government wanted – a crackdown on landlords and employers who rent to or employ illegal migrants. Other announcements were overshadowed by Lee Anderson, the deputy Tory chair, saying asylum seekers should “f*** off back to France” , which was not exactly in the comms plan.

The Ascension Island farce wasn’t the first time Downing Street had overruled the Home Office. What officials describe as a "crazy" scheme to moor a barge on the River Thames was vetoed when it was pointed out that migrants could have swum 90 metres to an unfenced part of London City Airport. “You couldn’t make it up, but the Home Office did,” one insider told me.

The word in Whitehall is that asylum policy is in effect run by Will Tanner, the deputy chief of staff at Number 10 and a former Home Office adviser. He works closely with Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, who is trusted by Sunak – unlike Jenrick’s nominal boss Suella Braverman, the home secretary, who is not.

She is described as on "permanent resignation watch" because Sunak allies think she will quit when she judges it will further her future leadership ambitions. It’s worth noting that she has not yet appeared on the airwaves during “small boats week”. Sunak might be on holiday in California but still issued a “me, me, me” video on “five things I’m doing to stop the boats”. Never mind the rest of his government: for Sunak, it’s personal, after his ambitious but rash pledge in January to “stop the boats”.

The real story now is that ministers are thrashing around for a plan B in case their controversial proposal to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is blocked by the Supreme Court. Impatient Tory MPs are warning of a big rebellion if there is no back-up scheme.

With their asylum strategy reduced to gestures like barges and Rwanda, and plainly not going smoothly, such measures cannot be the deterrent ministers claim. Some ministers, fearing defeat on the Rwanda plan, are reviving the nuclear option for the Tories to pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) at next year’s election. On his media round today, Jenrick didn’t rule it out. “We will do whatever is required, take whatever necessary action is needed,” he told Times Radio.

One idea is a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on the issue. The Tories would argue “the system” had blocked their repeated attempts to resolve the boats crisis, and re-run Boris Johnson’s populist, anti-establishment campaign on Europe at the 2019 election. Labour would oppose ECHR withdrawal, scuppering Keir Starmer’s plan to defuse the migration issue by implementing the Tories’ proposals more efficiently to clear the asylum case backlog and get a returns agreement with the EU.

Leaving the ECHR would be incendiary. Sunak would be accused of jeopardising the Good Friday Agreement, which the ECHR underpins, and derailing the much-improved relations with the EU he has forged – and, ironically, wrecking any hope of a real solution on the small boats via EU cooperation. Although the Tories would be split on ECHR withdrawal, a desperate Sunak might be tempted to bounce his party when the election comes to draw another dividing line with Labour.

Far from distracting attention from its abject failure or persuading voters the government is “doing something”, its “small boats week” is merely reminding the public of that failure. It emerged that the number of migrants housed in hotels has risen by 10,000 to more than 50,000 since Sunak promised to end the practice.

He is 20,000 cases behind schedule on his promise to clear the backlog of legacy claims by December. There are still a total of 137,000 claims in the system.

Ministers hope this week’s flurry of announcements will show the public the Tories are “on their side” and are at least trying to stop the boats. They hope voters will take a closer look at Labour’s alternative as the election approaches.

It’s a false hope: most voters will know who to hold responsible for the failure on the Tories’ watch and be tempted to give the other side a chance. "Don’t blame us, we’re only the government" is hardly an effective message.