The Senate looks increasingly unlikely to help Ukraine

Pro-Ukraine Republicans’ fear of right-wing wrath could hand Ukraine to Putin

Walking with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives at the U.S. Capitol to meet with Congressional leadership on December 12, 2023 in Washington, DC (Getty Images)

‘Twas the week before Christmas, and gone was the House. The Senate is still in session, to see if Ukraine will go without.

At this point, it seems increasingly unlikely that the bipartisan group of senators negotiating a tradeoff of stricter immigration laws for Ukraine aid will come to an agreement.

The Senate convened on Monday for votes to confirm Martin O’Malley to run the Social Security Administration, but other than that, little progress seemed to be made.

At this point, it needs to be said: This is a negotiation about nothing. Most of the principals in the bipartisan negotiations support Ukraine. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell supports funding Ukraine and accompanied Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when he visited the Senate last week. Similarly, if GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson were to put forward a vote on a clean Ukraine aid bill, it would likely pass with almost every Democrat and enough Republicans to push it over the finish line.

But Republicans know they cannot support Ukraine without facing the wrath of their base, which ardently opposes supporting Ukraine against Vladimir Putin’s relentless assault. Mr Zelensky has supplanted Dr Anthony Fauci as a synecdoche for everything that Republicans hate. Earlier this year at CPAC, the mere mention of Mr Zelensky by far-right conspiracy theorist Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia elicited boos.

So as a result, Republicans – including supporters of Ukraine – have decided to demand wide-ranging changes to the US immigration system that reads like a wish list written by Stephen Miller and would never otherwise pass during a Democratic administration and Senate.

Pro-Ukraine Republicans want there to be strength in numbers. If only a handful of Republicans help Democrats override a filibuster, they risk a primary challenge and the wrath of their base and right-wing media. So they are looking for enough political cover from their right flank to explain why they are supporting Ukraine rather than voting to protect an ally, lest Mr Putin see American unwillingness to support Ukraine as weakness and march into other countries.

The fact Republicans selected Sen James Lankford and Sen Thom Tillis symbolises the Republican predicament. Mr Lankford is a hardliner on everything from LGBT+ rights to abortion to immigration, so his conservative record offers cover for other Republicans who might otherwise be seen as squishy. Mr Tillis, for his part, has fashioned himself as a “serious” negotiator in Washington on everything from last year’s gun bill to the Respect for Marriage Act (both of which he neogtiated with Sen Kyrsen Sinema). But he also faced severe criticism from conservatives back in his home state and needs to shore up his right flank.

But, as friends of Inside Washington Burgess Everett and Myah Ward at Politico reported, the negotiators remain too far apart on everything from parole – wherein people who otherwise would not be admitted into the United States are allowed in on a temporary basis – to an expedited removal process. The White House’s involvement in the negotiations has not yielded a deal yet.

Unfortunately, Republican fear of the right-wing base could ultimately hand Ukraine over to Mr Putin if there is no breakthrough in sight