We’re already campaigning as if we’re having a second referendum – why not see it through?

The British people have not united around Brexit, or anything like it. They might not even after a Final Say. Yet there is, at least, more chance of the country coming together

Second referendum? It’s already happening, if you care to look. It’s on now, in the frenetic debate on websites, social media, newspapers and TV. It’s happening in “mainstream media” and outside it, where anger pollutes news. It’s happening – much more than last time round – in offices and pubs. Whereas in 2016 people thought the referendum was boring and a foregone conclusion, the opposite is true today.

So it’s happening now, this national debate on Europe. It’s organic, coming from the grass-roots up, driven by events; by the failure of parliament to decide what to do; by the failure of Theresa May and her cabinet (and, OK, the EU) to reach anything like a Brexit deal; and, in fact, because the nearer we get to the provisional exit date of 29 March 2019, the more terrifying the consequences will be – for all sides.

When Jacob Rees-Mogg and his party-within-a-party, the European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs, threatened to block the Chequers deal, they were within their democratic rights; but what then if Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP block the “hard Brexit” favoured by the ERG?

We can all see that chaos coming: everything blocked; a war of vetoes.

Parliament has taken back control over Europe only to lose control of it. Sovereignty, transferred to the people with no great fanfare on 23 June 2016, needs to be exercised by them once again.

Nigel Farage “donning khaki”, as he calls it, is the best news possible for those who want a “final say” on Brexit. He’s promising to do a national tour and – with no sense of irony – to appear more on the media. Fine, I say. It is, in itself, a boost to the quality of the debate – I mean that – to have such a talented campaigner and publicist involved in the discussion.

Of course I don’t agree with much, possibly anything, Nigel stands for, apart from his liking a pint, but he is doing us all a favour by getting involved. He is, as the political scientists say, “raising the salience” of the issue, and making a “final say” referendum vote that much more likely.

Much the same is true of the £1 million donation to the People’s Vote movement from Superdry co-founder Julian Dunkerton. Like Mr Farage, he senses that the issues have not been decided, that there is much to still to play for. After all, again from a different point of view, Boris Johnson declared in his resignation speech that “it is not too late to save Brexit”.

All sides in the Brexit debate, then, believe that there is something worth fighting for, and, on the whole, all sides are sincere and honourable in their beliefs and patriotism – we should try to remember that as we have failed to do too often in the past two years.

We also have the evidence of this newfound popular engagement via the People’s Vote and The Independent petitions, and the fact that the headlines are still dominated by Brexit more than two years after the vote. Marches and demonstrations on both sides have drawn substantial support, and will do so again, as we will see, for example, at the March on October 20th. That tells us something.

It may, then, also be dawning on people that the only way to set Britain's future relationship with Europe is to finish the debate, now that the facts and consequences are incomparably better understood than they were in June 2016.

The British people have not united around Brexit, or anything like it. They might not even after a final say, I admit; there will be claims of a “stab in the back”. Yet there is, at least, more chance of the country coming together, and of whatever happens in the future carrying more people with it. No one will be able to say they didn’t know what they were voting for and why. If there is a vote for Brexit – whether on the “Chequers” terms (or a variant) or for “hard” Brexit, then, frankly, fair enough.

Remainers will have to get used to the reality of the views of their fellow citizens. If Remain wins it will be because the Brexiteers had not been candid about the economic costs, at least in the short term, and the complexity of the issues – Farage himself says he wouldn’t have promised an extra £350 million a week to the NHS, and Michael Gove expresses regret about the way the migration issue has been handled.

For Brexiteers of either variety, it could be that regaining absolute sovereignty and control over money, borders and laws is not something they want if it is going to cost them jobs and economic benefits.

A new referendum would focus on the three main options facing the country: hard, “no deal” Brexit; a softer “Chequers” version or Canada-style free trade deal; and simply staying in the EU. Voters could be asked for their first, second and third preferences (if they extend that far), and the votes of the losing option redistributed to the top two. It is the fairest way of doing it.

Luckily, there are three nascent campaigns, though as yet Jeremy Corbyn and Labour seem distant from all of them. Sooner or later, Mr Corbyn will realise that a Brexit referendum is actually more likely than a general election, and lead accordingly, or see his party break three ways. As we see with unions supporting The Independent Final Say campaign, the prospect of members losing jobs will focus minds. The choice is Mr Corbyn’s – but also the Labour movement’s.

For now, then, we have People’s Vote, which, realistically, does number quite a few Remainers in its ranks – though also sincere leavers – led by Chuka Umunna and Dominic Grieve, say; the Government and official Conservative “Chequers”/soft Brexit option, led by May and Jeremy Hunt; and Leave Means Leave, the Tory group led by, presumably, Johnson and Farage – quite the pairing.

Finally, a few thoughts on the UK Independence Party. Interestingly, Mr Farage has apparently decided to give up on Ukip, and says in his “I’m back” tweet:

“I pledge my absolute and total support to Leave Means Leave and will go back on the road to campaign. Over the last few months, scores of people have stopped me in the street to ask: ‘When are you coming back?’ Well now you have your answer: I’m back.”

He is. But what of Ukip? Is he even still a member of Ukip? The present Ukip leader is Gerard Batten MEP, a man who is taking his party even further to the extremes, and hasn’t sent any social media message of support to Mr Farage, we notice. Will Mr Farage rejoin the Conservative Party? Will his followers infiltrate that party so that, after a mere three month wait and a fee of £25 paid, they can vote for Mr Johnson in a leadership election?

Will this Momentum-style entryist takeover by Brexiteers and Farageists of the Tories, who have a moribund membership of a mere 120,000 or so, succeed? Could it even make Mr Farage the next leader-but-one of the Conservative Party? He’d need to be selected as candidate for the Commons in a safe seat – but there are lots of Conservative associations who’d take him. Farage for PM? Just like, incidentally, the way the Trumpists took over the US Republican Party for his hero Donald? You have been warned.