Rishi Sunak’s mini-Budget: what he said – and what he really meant

Our chief political commentator imagines the chancellor’s internal monologue as he delivered his spring statement

John Rentoul
Wednesday 23 March 2022 14:58 GMT
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson congratulates Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak (House of Commons/PA)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson congratulates Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak (House of Commons/PA) (PA Wire)

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What Rishi Sunak said: As I stand here men, women and children are huddled in basements across Ukraine seeking protection. Soldiers and citizens alike have taken up arms to defend their land and families. The sorrow we feel for their suffering and admiration for their bravery is only matched by the gratitude we feel for the security in which we live.

What he really meant: I am not just a bean-counter, I am a prime minister in waiting.

What he said: So when I talk about security, I mean responding to the war in Ukraine, but I also mean the security of a faster growing economy, the security of more resilient public finances and security of working families as we help with the cost of living.

What he meant: Useful word, security, with a double meaning, which is why Keir Starmer keeps using it, as a way of trying to persuade us he can be trusted on defence and on the economy. Same for me.

What he said: Statistics published this morning show that inflation in February was 6.2 per cent – lower than the US and broadly in line with the euro area.

What he meant: The highest rate of inflation since that index began a quarter of a century ago, but it is lower than in Weimar Germany.

What he said: People should know that we will stand by them as we have throughout the last two years.

What he meant: I am the most popular politician in Britain because I delivered furlough and business support during the pandemic. It’s fading fast, but allow me to jog your memory.

What he said: From 2019 the European Court of Justice required us to restrict eligibility [for lower VAT on energy efficiency]. But thanks to Brexit I can announce that for the next five years homeowners having materials like solar panels, heat pumps or insulation installed will no longer pay 5 per cent VAT, they will pay zero.

What he meant: I voted to leave the EU, unlike Liz Truss or Jeremy Hunt, who seem to think that they have a chance of being next prime minister.

What he said: This policy highlights the deficiencies in the Northern Ireland protocol because we won't immediately be able to apply it to Northern Ireland.

What he meant: I may be pro-Brexit but I never would have negotiated that duff agreement that the clown behind me claimed was a fantastic oven-ready deal.

What he said: We will continue to weigh carefully calls for additional public spending. More borrowing is not cost or risk free. I said it last autumn and I say it again today. Only the Conservatives can be trusted with taxpayers’ money.

What he meant: The prime minister keeps bugging me by demanding more money for everything under the sun. I have tried to explain to him, using matchsticks, that too much borrowing could destroy our chances at the next election.

What he said: Today, I am publishing a tax plan. We will take a principled approach to cutting taxes, maintaining space against our fiscal rules as I have done today, continuing to be disciplined, with the first call on any extra resources being lower taxes, not higher spending.

What he meant: Well, I say “continuing”, but what I mean is starting now. Until now, I’ve been raising taxes to pay for higher spending. Fortunately more revenue has come in than expected, allowing me to announce a surprise, but I’m saving that up for later in the speech.

What he said: When I said the Conservatives were the party of public services, the party of the NHS, I didn't just mean when it was easy. It is a total commitment.

What he meant: We are going to spend more on the NHS and cut some highly visible taxes. It looks barely credible, but I am good with numbers.

What he said: Our current plan is to increase the national insurance threshold this year by £300, and we’re not going to do that, Mr Speaker. I’m going to increase it by the full £3,000.

What he meant: Conservative MPs wanted me to postpone the big national insurance rise from next month, and I have got more money than I expected, so I’ll do it, but in a way that doesn’t look like a U-turn. This will give back more to 70 per cent of workers than I’m taking from them.

What he said: We know that individuals spend their money better than governments.

What he meant: Conservative MPs: listen to what I say, not what I do. Vote for me. Voters in insecure jobs: I used vast amounts of public money to save you. Vote for me.

What he said: A clear goal for Conservative chancellors – and even some Labour ones – has been to cut income tax. The fact this has happened only twice in 20 years tells you how hard it is to do.

What he meant: Gordon Brown was so desperate to cut the basic rate he blundered into introducing a lower 10p rate as well. I am cleverer than Gordon Brown.

What he said: It would clearly be irresponsible to meet this ambition this year. And yet I refuse to let that ambition wither and drift. By 2024 the Office for Budget Responsibility expects inflation to be under control, debt falling sustainably and the economy growing. Our fiscal goals are met with a clear margin of safety.

What he meant: Wait for it. Wait for it.

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What he said: And so my final announcement today is this. I can confirm, before the end of this parliament, in 2024, for the first time in 16 years, the basic rate of income tax will be cut from 20 to 19 pence in the pound.

What he meant: Gordon Brown once raged at Tony Blair for stealing his effing Budget by pre-announcing higher NHS spending. I am going to steal my own Budget for 2024 by pre-announcing a tax cut now. After all, I need the credit for it now. I hope to be prime minister by then.

What he said: Let me end by simply saying this: my tax plan delivers the biggest net cut in personal taxes in over a quarter of a century and I commend it to the House.

What he meant: I can tell from the look on Labour MPs’ faces that they do not realise that I have shot their fox. They said the national insurance rise was the wrong tax rise at the wrong time. That is why I got rid of it, raising thresholds so that only higher earners have to pay more.

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