Forget maths – Rishi Sunak has already failed young people by making two major mistakes

A generational tide is moving dangerously against the Tories and their policy choices have fuelled it

Rishi Sunak’s long-awaited “vision” speech this afternoon includes a promise that all pupils in England will study some form of maths to the age of 18. While welcome, it’s an old idea rather than a new one. I remember Michael Gove talking it up when he was education secretary – 12 years ago.

Like most of Sunak’s promises, it will not be delivered until after the next general election, which will become a dangerous theme for him as time runs out. Even then, will there be enough maths teachers to implement it?

But as the prime minister responds to the clamour from jittery Tory MPs to spell out what he stands for, the proposal does at least fit with his personal mission to leave the country in a better state for “our children and grandchildren”. Despite that, Sunak has already failed the next generation by making two big mistakes.

Firstly, he scrapped mandatory housebuilding targets for local authorities after a revolt by Tory backbenchers. It was a victory for asset-rich over-65s and nimbyism, and a rejection of the easiest way to achieve economic growth. The average age of a first-time buyer has already risen from 29 to 34 since the 1990s. It is nothing short of electoral suicide for the Tories to deny millions of younger voters the chance to own their own home.

Secondly, the government has shelved Liz Truss’s plans to cut the cost of childcare, a huge issue for young adults. She had proposed to reduce staff-to-child ratios in England, an unpopular idea among parents, and to raise the amount of “free” childcare for three and four-year-olds from 30 to 50 hours a week, which would be very popular, as parents often see between 25 and 30 per cent of their income swallowed up by childcare bills.

Predictably, there’s a backlash by Truss allies. What should worry Sunak more is the backlash from parents. I’m told Labour is going to make a “big offer” on early years in its election manifesto, so Sunak needs to get on this pitch.

Meanwhile, private-sector landlords are hiking rents following the rise in mortgage payments and student loan repayments are making younger adults the highest-taxed group, with a typical graduate aged 33 to 47 paying a marginal tax rate of 51 per cent.

For one more time, the Tories hope to limp over the election-winning line on the back of the over-65s, many of whom don’t have to worry about a mortgage or rent. Although this group is more likely to vote than younger people, it might not work.

Age is now a stronger indicator of voting intention than class, race or gender. This is an existential crisis for the Tories, not a temporary blip. I was struck by an analysis by the Financial Times, which suggests people in Western countries are no longer becoming more conservative as they get older.

People born between 1928 and 1945 were five percentage points less conservative than the national average by the age of 35, but about five points more conservative by the time they reached 70. The “baby boomer” generation and “Gen X” (born between 1965 and 1980) took the same path but, crucially, the millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) are not doing so. They are 15 points less conservative than the average at 35.

Sensible Tories grasp the huge implications but they are in a minority. Ryan Shorthouse, who is standing down as chief executive of the Bright Blue think tank, said: “Over the past 12 years of Conservative governments, there has been progress on employment, educational and environmental policy...

“But for my generation – millennials – if they do not have middle-class parents to support them, then I am afraid that my conclusion is they have largely been failed by public policy. The result is a marked decline in overall home ownership and the birth rate, which should send shivers down the spine of any conservative.”

Since the 2008 financial crisis, growing public debt resulted in higher taxes for future generations, while older people reaped the benefit of rising asset prices. Tackling this intergenerational unfairness would be a big idea if only Sunak could grasp it. Of course, there’s never a good time to alienate your bedrock supporters, and an election is coming next year. But I suspect many well-off grandparents would be happy to make a greater contribution to Treasury coffers to reduce the unfair burden on their grandchildren. One day there will be a rebalancing, perhaps with those past retirement age paying national insurance and taxes shifted from work to wealth.

If Sunak tried it, his short-sighted MPs would scream about losing the pensioner vote, so we will probably have to wait for a Labour government, and Keir Starmer won’t advertise it before the election.

A generational tide is moving dangerously against the Tories. Their policy choices have fuelled it. No wonder younger adults are deserting the “party of aspiration” when it can no longer meet theirs.