The prime minister has a politics problem – he isn’t very good at it

A £1,000 bet with Piers Morgan, failed NHS pledges and a trans blunder at PMQs spell bad news for Rishi Sunak, writes Andrew Grice. The PM has a ‘competence deficit’ – and it’ll prove very handy for Labour...

‘Many people would quite like to turn the clock back. Sunak is unwittingly reminding them how to do it’ (PA Wire)

Rishi Sunak can’t win – in every sense of the phrase. Not only did he set himself up for a fierce backlash by making a trans blunder at Prime Minister’s Questions today, but even his successes don’t seem to improve his or his party’s opinion poll ratings or general election prospects.

This week’s restoration of power-sharing in Northern Ireland is a case in point. It won’t bring the “competence dividend” Sunak allies privately hope for. Even though, like his Windsor framework a year ago paving the way for it, it took the sort of painstaking work and attention to detail at which he excels.

Why won’t the prime minister get the credit he deserves on Northern Ireland? Sadly, the issue has a low salience in Great Britain – but Sunak’s real problem is that many of the swing voters who usually decide elections don’t base their verdict on party policies but on party leaders and their character. This “valence” judgment includes whether leaders are competent, strong and in touch. It played a big role in the three election victories of both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, and partly explains why the Tories have now been in power for 14 years.