Only one Republican can stop Trump – and she is Biden’s worst nightmare

The Iowa caucus is being viewed as a cakewalk for Donald Trump, but it is also the state that is famed for serving up surprises, writes Jon Sopel. If Nikki Haley can consolidate the anti-Trump vote, everything could change

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley conveys the impression that she believes nothing and will say whatever she needs to win votes (AP)

This time four years ago I stood in Washington DC’s biggest outdoor and camping supply store waiting to be served, as a succession of young professionals in front of me told the patient and courteous staff that they needed thick boots, thermals and fleeces for their upcoming trip to Iowa. I was in line for exactly the same products to go to the same Midwest state. Talk about feeling like a cliche.

It’s time for the quadrennial migration once more. Like wildebeest waiting to cross the Mara River, so the reporters and film crews, policy wonks and party hacks, diplomats and columnists head west from DC to talk caucuses, ethanol prices and sugar beet. And just how bloody cold it is. My first Iowa caucus was in 2008 and I had to stand outside the state capital in Des Moines in temperatures of -16C waiting to do a live for the news. By the time they cued over to me, I swear my jaw had literally seized up. I could barely speak.

Iowa is famed for serving up surprises – the Texas senator, Ted Cruz, won here in 2016 after performing particularly well at the Bible breakfasts – which are a staple of political campaigning in this Bible-belt state. That turned out to be not such a strong point for Donald Trump who, when asked whether he was an Old or New Testament guy, fumbled and said that he thought they were both great books.

In 2024 – spoiler alert – there are going to be no surprises. It’s going to be a cakewalk for Trump. Polling has him out in front by a country mile. And that will reinforce the narrative that the former president is unstoppable for the Republican nomination. And certainly, that is the impression he will want to convey when he stands victorious on 16 January and thanks his supporters.

But not so fast. The circus then quickly moves east to New Hampshire, the granite state, where a week later it will vote in the first primary – and things are nothing like so solid. Please don’t ask me to go into the difference between a caucus and a primary – life is too short. In essence, a primary is a normal election, and a caucus is a bonkers to the retail politics of the 19th century.

Anyway, let’s get back to New Hampshire where a threat to Trump could – and I underline could – be significant. His former UN ambassador and one time South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, is on the rise. She has some formidable backing – by which I mean billionaires with massively deep pockets. The popular Republican state governor, Chris Sununu – and well-known Trump foe – has backed her. And her fan base is expanding.

Some poll numbers have her steadily climbing, others have her within touching distance of Trump. She is not there yet. The thing Haley needs most is for the other “also ran” candidates to get out the way so the anti-Trump vote is not split. That means the former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie. He is the most avowedly and openly hostile to the former president, happy to describe himself as the stop Trump candidate – but for the moment he’s refusing to step aside to give Haley a clear run.

Which is odd. I travelled around with Christie in 2016, and New Hampshire is where his campaign ran into the ground. He enjoys no great support and is in no position to win – whereas Haley is. The pressure will be on him to rethink. But he has a big ego and is stubborn.

The other thing is that in recent statements, Haley has hardly helped herself. She was at a town-hall meeting in the state when asked a left-field question, but hardly a difficult one. What were the causes of the US civil war, her questioner wanted to know.

At no point does the former South Carolina governor mention slavery. Her questioner then comes back and expresses his astonishment that she didn’t mention that. “What do you want me to say about slavery?” she asks.

This in a northern state that was very much fighting for the union. And though she is from the southern state that was first to secede, it really is settled history that slavery was at the heart of the civil war. To not mention it was utterly bizarre, and she has been trying to clear up the mess ever since.

This is the nub of her problem. Yes she’s an attractive candidate, yes she’s very popular with foreign diplomats, yes she comes across well on television. But what does she really stand for? And when as a candidate you say out loud “what do you want me to say?” it conveys an impression that she believes nothing and will say whatever she needs to win votes; a taxi for hire. And that might be one of the reasons Christie is not budging. In the same Q&A Haley said she would pardon Trump if he was convicted on one of the federal charges he’s facing. So what lane is she swimming in?

But if she did win (and “if” is putting in a lot of work in this sentence) it would be a massive momentum shift. It would mean the air of invincibility that cloaks Trump would have been ripped from him. It would recast and reframe the rest of the race for the Republican nomination. Yes, it’s a big “if”. But it is now not inconceivable.

One other thing. Trump endlessly rails about how Biden and his partisan justice department is pursuing a witch hunt to prevent him from running. You’ve got to be joking. The 81-year-old is desperate to fight the 77-year-old Trump – and not the youthful, dynamic Haley. If Republicans who are going to vote in the upcoming primaries ask themselves “who do the Dems fear the most?”, the answer is not Trump. It’s Haley.

And the more they mull that question, the more you can imagine the scales tipping towards her.

Jon Sopel is the former BBC North America Editor and now presents Global’s ‘The News Agents’ podcast