Who will the Republicans choose to run for US president in 2024? Here are my best bets

The GOP used to be more predictable in its choice of candidate than the Democrats. Since Trump, both parties have changed their behaviour when picking nominees

Is it premature to look into a crystal ball and size up the contenders for the Republican presidential ticket in 2024?

Given that campaigning will effectively start as soon as Joe Biden has been inaugurated (finally bringing the curtain down on Donald Trump’s flailing but still disturbing attempts to cling to office) it is not.  

And I have to admit I enjoy a good horror story. The race for the GOP ticket in 2024 feels like one. I’d liken it to the 2012 movie Cabin in the Woods, where technicians use remote control to manipulate the array of bloodthirsty terrors.

So let’s have a look at the trends, the field and the betting.  

Pre-Trump, the GOP (Grand Old Party) was a deal more predictable in its choice of candidate than the Democrats. It was possible to make a decent stab at what was coming even four years out.

Going back to Ronald Reagan all but one of the nominees had run a previous, unsuccessful campaign in the primaries. This was true of George HW Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney and the Gipper himself.  

The exception was George W Bush, who as the son of president George HW Bush, and the grandson of a senator (Prescott Bush), was the scion of an established political dynasty. Mitt Romney, whose father was Massachusetts governor George Romney, also ticked that box. All of them had also served as either a high profile senator or the governor of a populous state.

The same is not true of Democrats, who’ve preferred (relatively) fresh-faced first-time runners with the notable exception of Walter Mondale, who didn’t work out at all well for them (Reagan thumped him in the landslide to end all landslides).  

The two parties do rather seem to have flipped on the type of candidate they choose, which is worth bearing in mind before betting.  

I divide the 2024 GOP field into three categories. The first is a Trump. It’s a lot easier to find bookies offering markets on the next president than it is the next GOP nominee, but I dug out a couple and Donald Trump is, obviously, their clear favourite. He’s as low as 7-2 with Ladbrokes, which isn’t at all attractive given his age, looming legal issues and the length of time you’d have to wait for a payout.

First daughter Ivanka comes next – she can be backed at 10-1 with Paddy Power but 16-1 with Laddies. Don Junior’s price ranges from 10-1 to 25-1 with the same pair. Eric Trump, one of the dimmer stars in the Trump galaxy can be backed at 16-1 (PP) to 100-1 (Ladbrokes) but I wouldn’t fancy him at even the latter price. But his brother, who’s telegenic and very much in tune with “the base”, arguably offers some value at 25s. Just remember that the Trump children could also get drawn into the family’s legal whirlpool (precisely why the outgoing president was said to be considering pre-emptive pardons for them).

I would be inclined to wait for the outcome of the two Georgia senate run-offs before putting money down. Both GOP candidates have hitched themselves firmly to the Trump wagon. If the Democrats win it could signal the waning of his power.  

The second group is made up of established Republican politicians. Vice president Mike Pence (17-2 with Paddy Power) would be many people’s favourite. Veeps have repeatedly got the nod to run for the top job even if they haven’t been all that successful in recent years. Pence is a genuine religious zealot, as opposed to just pandering to them for their votes like most Republicans, which potentially gives him an opening with that constituency. But he wouldn't be carrying my money even though the thought of profiting from his nomination by engaging in the vice of gambling tickles me.  

He’s too much of a lickspittle, too dull, and I doubt he’d get Trump’s full throated support if the latter is in a position to anoint his successor from Mar-a-Lago.

Josh Hawley, the junior senator from Missouri, has shot to prominence in the wake of his pledge to defy his leader Mitch McConnell by objecting to the election result and forcing a vote. He’s 16-1 with Ladbrokes but 50-1 with Paddy Power.

He’s young, telegenic, and slavishly pro-Trump (see above) even to the extent of having principles malleable enough to join forces with Bernie Sanders and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer in an attempt to force a vote on increasing stimulus payments to Americans, a measure favoured by the president. While 2024 may be too soon, he’d be one to keep tabs on.  

The bookies are much more closely aligned when it comes to Nikki Haley, who served as Trump’s ambassador to the UN. She’s priced at between 11-2 and 6-1. She was one of the names in the frame to join Mitt Romney’s ticket as VP while serving as governor of South Carolina. An Indian American woman might serve a party which has a big problem with women and minorities very well. Whether GOP primary voters would see it that way is an open question. Her price is, anyway, far too short at this stage.  

Establishment figures like Ted Cruz (best price 35-1 PP) and Marco Rubio (best 25-1 Ladbrokes) will surely be in there. But I don’t think having previously run (as they have) is quite the advantage for a GOP candidate that it was.  

My pick from group two would be Tom Cotton (best price 18-1). The Arkansas senator has come under fire from Trump for failing to object to the election result but his politics are otherwise very similar. He pushes the same sort of nationalist and authoritarian buttons. He was responsible for a now infamous New York Times column calling for troops to be sent in to quell the civil unrest that followed the murder of George Floyd. The former serviceman could be a force, especially if Trump’s power does wane. He’d be one to watch. Preferably from behind the sofa.  

The x-factor comes in the form of a third group: another populist non-politician donning the mantle of outsider. Step forward Tucker Carlson.  

Carlson is an unashamed nationalist whose primetime Fox News opinion programme has been dubbed “the white supremacy power hour”. He’s dabbled in economic populism, having previously bashed big companies for paying low wages subsidised by government food stamps, although critics argue that his concern for the American worker only goes so far.  

Smart, savvy, and nasty (he once claimed immigrants made America “poorer and dirtier”) he’s pally with Trump but wouldn’t be harmed if the latter’s power faded given the platform he has.

Does he want to pass up a huge Fox News contract for the Oval Office? That’s the question but the 55-1 Paddy Power is offering looks very generous. I’ve taken a small interest. Should he run, and win the GOP nomination, I’d be minded to donate some of the winnings to a pro-immigration charity.