Who does Putin actually want to win the election? As a Russian American, I know the answer

The Kremlin has reportedly developed two alternative plans for resolving the military conflict with Ukraine — one in the event that Trump wins and another for if Harris becomes president

Vladimir Putin holds a video conference about the Russian economy at the Kremlin (AP)

As Tuesday draws nearer, it’s not only the American public holding its breath in anticipation. Russian President Vladimir Putin is among those watching closely, with much at stake in the outcome.

This election cycle, Russia has again been accused of interfering in the elections. On September 4, several US state agencies announced new measures to counter a Russian campaign aimed at spreading disinformation among Americans. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on two Russian propaganda outlets and ten individuals, including Margarita Simonyan, head of the Russia Today news channel. Meanwhile, the Justice Department reported the ongoing seizure of 32 internet domains used in Russian government-directed foreign influence campaigns.

A familiar narrative in American media suggests an alliance between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, with Putin working to return Trump to power. Yet, despite the fact that two Russian operations — Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — have been identified as responsible for creating and disseminating videos falsely targeting Kamala Harris, this narrative lacks substantial backing. Even the Justice Department, in explaining its actions, noted that the covert campaign was aimed at “illegally [manipulating] American public opinion by sowing discord and division,” rather than promoting any specific presidential candidate.

The Kremlin seems undecided about whom it would prefer to see as the next US president. Putin clearly understands that, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office, the US stance toward Russia is likely to remain unfriendly. In fact, some animosity between Trump and the Kremlin has been playing out over the past few months.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal published on October 18, Trump recounted a conversation with Putin in which he had threatened to hit him “right in the middle of fricking Moscow” if he went after Ukraine. Three days later, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, commented on this interview, as reported by the Russian state media outlet RBK. He noted that during the final stage of the election campaign, “there are a lot of heated emotional statements being made in the United States.” Peskov also stated that the Kremlin does not disclose the content of high-level conversations: “Unfortunately, a number of world leaders do not adhere to this position and do not observe information hygiene. Well, that’s on their conscience.”

On October 31, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, Trump promised to “un-unite” Russia and China if he wins the upcoming presidential election. Peskov responded the next day during a press briefing, saying, “It’s not clear why there’s a need to disconnect, why there’s a need to hinder cooperation between Russia and China. This cooperation has a really special, privileged character of a strategic partnership.” He emphasized that “the main feature of cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is that it’s not directed against third countries, but is for the interests of the peoples of the two countries.”

What does Putin himself have to say about his preferences? On September 5, at an economic forum in Vladivostok in the Russian Far East, he replied to a direct question, stating that he preferred the current president, Joe Biden. However, Putin added that, since Biden has removed himself from the race, his candidate of choice is now Harris. Remarking that she laughs like someone who is clearly “doing well,” Putin noted that Trump imposed more restrictions and sanctions on Russia than any president before him. “And if Ms. Harris is doing well, maybe she will refrain from actions of this kind,” he said.

This, of course, might be a deflection tactic on Putin’s part. There’s no reason to trust a person who has lied countless times — indeed, lying seems to be his modus operandi. At least Trump is a familiar figure to him, which might make the former president more preferable in Putin’s eyes. Trump has claimed he could end the war in Ukraine immediately, showing little sympathy for Ukraine and asserting that Zelensky “should never have let that war start.” Perhaps this is also why Putin might lean toward Trump, even if he wants to appear otherwise inclined. There are other reasons as well, such as Trump’s indifference to Russia’s human rights abuses and his stance on NATO.

This view is supported by an opinion that does not come directly from the Kremlin, but from one of its lower-level employees. In an October 30 interview with the Russian state agency RIA, Sergey Karyakin, a senator from the Crimean parliament, said, “If Trump returns to power, there are more chances for this [improvement of relations between Russia and the US], but overall the situation will still be tense. At least I don’t expect relations to improve right away.”

It appears that the Russian authorities are carefully considering and preparing in advance for both scenarios. The state-owned news outlet Argumenty Nedeli, citing an anonymous Telegram channel that referenced an unnamed source, reported that the Kremlin has developed two alternative plans for resolving the military conflict with Ukraine — one in the event that Trump wins and another for if Harris becomes president. Allegedly, Trump will be presented with a “softer” version, allowing for some flexibility, with Putin himself expected to voice one of these proposals after the US elections.

Ultimately, even if the Kremlin is somewhat uncertain about which candidate aligns better with its aims, what it cares most about is promoting its own interests. Putin’s more immediate goal with his covert interference efforts was likely to create as much chaos as possible, undermine Americans’ trust in their political institutions, and divert their attention away from global politics in general and the war in Ukraine in particular.

But it is clear that a lot hinges on these elections for Putin, and he is watching closely.

Svetlana Satchkova is a Brooklyn-based writer and journalist