In tonight's primaries, Michigan is the state that really matters — and Bernie Sanders likely knows it

The temperature of the nation will be taken in a state that also proved prophetic for Hillary Clinton in 2016

With the American primary newly reconfigured following Super Tuesday — leaving vice president Biden and Senator Sanders the only realistic contenders — it is a new field. Some progressives have argued that Warren’s exit from the race has opened up the possibility for Sanders to make up some ground, possibly siphoning progressive votes from the equally progressive Senator who is no longer a contender. Others have argued that Warren voters, trapped in a hostile cycle, are just as likely to align with Biden.

But the inevitable direction of the 2020 primary will reveal itself after Michigan’s primary, which takes place today. This will mark the first official two-man primary (with apologies to non-starter Tulsi Gabbard, whom I believe is still running, though I do not earnestly know why) in the 2020 cycle, and so we’ll learn a little bit about where those Bloomberg and Warren voters will land.

Theories are often proven wrong in real life. In 2016, pollster Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton would take the state by 20 points, and that, if she did not, the upset would be one of the greatest polling errors of all time. Clinton lost by nearly two points — and she ultimately lost Michigan in the general election, too.

A poll released over the weekend by EPIC-MRA for the Michigan Free Press gives Biden a staggering 24-point lead over Senator Sanders, up from an 8-point lead prior to Super Tuesday, in a state that he won just four years ago. As a result, Sanders has scrambled to assemble a coalition in the state that meant so much in the last election. A few days ago, civil rights activist Jesse Jackson endorsed Sanders leading into a rally in Michigan: an attempt, it seemed, to bring together African American support in a state where the major metropolitan area is 82 per cent black.

But that endorsement may have come too late, and one wonders why Jackson withheld his support until now — especially considering he hails from the state of South Carolina, the primary for which Sanders had expressed optimism, and the results for which painted a far bleaker picture.

Four years ago, the results in Michigan charted a political landscape. They told us, surprisingly, about what voters were thinking. They told us that Clinton’s base was fractured in the Rust Belt and the Midwest — a cue she could have capitalized on with her campaign, but didn’t, and it cost her dearly.

Should Sanders lose a state he under-dogged from a favorite in the last election, there’s a lesson there, too. The lesson is that Americans don’t feel, unilaterally, that he is the person equipped to beat Trump, or that he has not made the best case for serving the interests of African American voters — or a little bit of both.

And should Biden lose his undeniable lead, there’s a case to be made that Americans really do favor a complete dismantling of the system. I’m not prepared to go there just yet; ultimately, I’m not convinced than data really supports a “burn it down” approach to politics and progressivism in this particular election. But I look to Michigan as an indicator of what we can predict about the mood of the electorate.

In general elections, we like to say, “So goes Ohio, so goes the nation,” but Ohio is turning redder by the year, and there’s a pretty good argument to be made that it isn’t really much of a swing state anymore. That leaves states like Michigan, where a purple bloom has taken root, and which may be more emblematic of American confusion these days. Are we fighting for change? Are we fighting to right the ship? Are we just fighting to stop the insanity already?

The temperature of the Democratic Party, as it currently stands, will be taken in Michigan later today. Will we land firmly in the camp of pragmatism, which may not appeal to younger voters, but may, equally, restore a certain sanity and sensibility to the country while we figure things out? Or will Michigan — and we, as a result — tack far to the left, our vision of America now a little different after the past four years? The coming hours will surely tell.