Pennsylvania could decide the election. This is what’s happening on the ground

In 2016, I lined up to join Hillary Clinton’s victory party in Independence Park. This time round, I’m trying not to be so optimistic

A voter casting his early voting ballot at drop box outside of City Hall on 17 October, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Mark Makela/Getty Images)

It was Monday, November 7, 2016, a clear, chilly night on Independence Mall in Philadelphia, PA. My son Evan had been working for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, and this was the celebratory night before the election. The many-blocks-long line inched forward, as everyone was checked through security entering the park. Yet there was not a trace of impatience or discord. We were gathered to hail the probable victory for Secretary Clinton the following day, and the huge crowd was loving it all. Music pumping, powerful speeches by Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton. Messages of hope and unity. I returned by train to my home, energized and inspired and absolutely confident of the outcome.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016. I proudly cast my vote in the early morning hours. As the polls closed, I settled in on my family room sofa to await the results. Evan was with me, and we were both excited. At a certain point, even though I couldn’t tell there were problems at all, Evan discerned the distressing turn of events. While I was still glued to the TV, still very hopeful, Evan abruptly said, “It’s over. I can’t watch anymore,” and went to bed. I was stunned by his comment, but as the hours wore on it became clear that Donald Trump did indeed have a path to victory.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016. Was it a dream?  I checked the news. It was true. Donald Trump had won the presidency, and won our home state of Pennsylvania.

I have spent the past four years, as I know many other Pennsylvania residents have, wondering about what might have been, and sad about what has actually occurred. Aware of the strong feelings Hillary Clinton evoked, many of them negative, I was nevertheless in shock that she would lose, and that my state would be part of that outcome. How could I — how could the Democrats — have gotten this so wrong? How did we so misunderstand the intentions, the concerns, of some of our neighbors and friends? It was a slim margin of victory (Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes, less than 1 percentage point, out of more than 6 million votes cast), but it was still a win.

And now here we are, on the brink of Election Night 2020. After four years of division and chaos, and now an out-of-control pandemic and collapsed economy, I’ve still been afraid to hope for change. I can’t let go of the feeling that another loss is possible, and I keep replaying the joyous scene in Independence Park in 2016 in my head — and what followed. I irrationally wonder if feeling positive at this point would be jinxing the outcome.

This is obviously a referendum on the Trump administration, and Pennsylvania voters are taking the measure of this tenure. As of now, 2 million Pennsylvanians, and over 60 million Americans nationally, have voted early, by mail or drop-off ballot. The election is still five days away. Could there be another November Surprise? Jamie Perrapato, founder and Executive Director of Turn PA Blue, told me, “Our voter engagement and enthusiasm have been incredible. We are optimistic,” when I asked her. But voter suppression is a major concern, she added. Perrapato also worries about missing ballots, about the election possibly going to the Supreme Court. She admitted, “That’s what keeps me awake at night.”

I asked Ryan Matthews, who heads up the Pennsylvania Human Rights Campaign and was PA Democratic Coordinated Campaign Director four years ago, about the differences between the electorate in 2016 and 2020. “I think the biggest difference in Pennsylvania is that regular Pennsylvanians who don't watch cable news have seen Trump in action and they don't like what they've seen,” Matthews said. “They may not think he's as terrible as their die-hard Democratic friends do, but they know he is not up to the job, and the pandemic really showed how incompetent his administration really is. Joe Biden is offering a steady hand, normalcy, and a rejection of hateful rhetoric.”

According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight polling site, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and could very well decide the election. At the time of writing, Biden retains a decent lead. As I well remember, things can change overnight. But these are good signs, especially when heading into the final week of the campaign.

Legendary Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw’s signature catchphrase was: “You gotta believe!” The fans kept the faith through years of disappointments, and at last, in 1980, the Phillies won the World Series. Maybe it’s time for me to shake my fears and doubts and to recognize how different things are this year. We are not where we were in 2016.

I’ve done what I can to support Joe Biden. I have cast my vote. Maybe now, I just gotta believe.