Olly Robbins didn’t let Theresa May’s Brexit strategy slip, he just told the truth – we should listen to what he's saying

With the European Research Group's power diminishing and the Brexit clock running out, Theresa May's chief negotiater has accidentally provided the clarity that the UK desperately needs

Loose lips sink ships – even in the case of Brexit, when the UK will have no actual ships to sink. Theresa May’s chief Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins was reckless in the extreme to gossip about the UK government’s strategy over a late-night drink in the bar of the Sofitel Hotel in Brussels, which was overheard by the ITV journalist Angus Walker.

Robbins, currently one of the most powerful people in Britain, has made many enemies among Tory Brexiteers over the past two years for allegedly being too accommodating to the EU’s demands. Now his indiscreet talk in that bar, claiming that the government will present MPs with an eve-of-deadline choice between her deal or a long delay to Brexit, will have made him new foes inside government, particularly because hours later the prime minister told the Commons Britain was leaving as planned on 29 March.

And yet, what Robbins said was not a gaffe, even though the circumstances in which he said them were foolish – he spoke the truth. May’s long-running strategy has been to wield the prospect of no deal in order to get support for her Brexit plan. Yet that patently hasn’t worked, because her deal has been picked apart as the days have ticked down to 29 March. Instead, a no-deal Brexit has gone from being a negotiating device to a very real threat to the UK economy and, alarmingly, a first choice of some Brexiteers.

The threat of a no deal is no longer an abstract concept for the voting lobbies of parliament or the discussion rooms of Brussels – it has become a very real drag on the economy. Carmarkers are pulling out of manufacturing deals, businesses are holding back on investing in staff and capital, causing the economy to slow down. As the British Chambers of Commerce warned on Wednesday, firms have been “hung out to dry”.

What comes next, if no deal is struck by 29 March, could be a catastrophe. Senior civil servants, including Robbins, know this. The prime minister knows this. And therefore they will prevent the reality of a no-deal Brexit from happening. That is why Robbins is right to say there will be a choice between May’s deal – with whatever tweaks are made between now and the end of March – or a delay to Brexit, by way of an extension to Article 50. Otherwise Britain faces economic disaster.

Of course, at prime minister’s questions May tried to brush off Robbins’ comments as something “someone said to someone else overheard by someone else in a bar”, which strictly speaking is true, because she cannot deviate from her strategy. The deadline was still 29 March because that is set by Article 50, the PM said, adding: “We want to leave with a deal and that’s what we’re working for.” Yet she did not explicitly rule out an extension to Article 50 and Robbins’ remarks were not denied by Downing Street.

What matters now is how his words are interpreted by different factions of MPs and whether it will change the course of votes in the Commons on Thursday evening and later this month. Even before Robbins’ indiscretion emerged, Brexiteer Conservative MPs were complaining to party whips that they could not support the government’s supposedly straightforward motion in the Commons on Thursday, which reiterates the position of the house made on 29 January – endorsing both the Sir Graham Brady amendment on making changes to the Northern Ireland backstop and the Dame Caroline Spelman amendment opposing a no deal.

What was intended to be a smooth-run vote in the Commons this week – with the real showdown to come later this month on legislation blocking a no deal – could turn into yet another defeat for May. The risk for the PM is that Robbins’ comments, which effectively push no-deal Brexit off the table, will only harden the position of those same Brexiteers. What’s more, in language which will infuriate pro-Brexit Tories, Robbins let slip in the Sofitel bar that the backstop was originally not designed as a “safety net” but a “bridge” to a long-term trading relationship with the EU.

Yet there are signs of growing splits among the Brexiteer European Research Group on how to deal with the backstop and the prospect of a no deal. The ERG is no longer the unified power it once was. May does not need to rely on their votes in totality if she can get enough broad support from all parties across the Commons. As a result, she should stop using the threat of a no deal as a negotiating tactic, not only because it’s not working politically, and not only because it’s hurting businesses, but also because she doesn’t need to. Robbins’ loose talk may have been foolish, but it is time to listen to what he said.