The north is still Westminster’s unloved stepchild. And Brexit is only going to make things worse

When we realise that a guarantee was really little more than hot air, it’s not only deeply disappointing, but genuinely devastating for families, communities, and – in this particular case – a large portion of the country

Politicians are shamelessly fickle creatures. From Mexican border walls to £350m a week for the NHS, few things are too farfetched when it comes to the pledges of those vying to lead a state, regardless of whether the finances add up.

Sometimes, when commitments are exposed as wildly unrealistic, at least we can delight in some semblance of comedic value. Other times though, when we realise that a guarantee was really little more than hot air, it's not only deeply disappointing, but genuinely devastating for families, communities, and – in this particular case – a large portion of the country.

It pains me to say this, because I try to be an optimist, but the Northern Powerhouse that so many politicians vowed to create, support and promote, is in many cases being treated more like a slightly rusty northern cranking motor that's seen better days.

To mark five years since then chancellor George Osborne introduced his lofty ambition of bringing together the cities, towns and rural communities in the north of England to promote economic growth, the Institute for Public Policy Research this week released a report taking stock.

The facts speak for themselves. Rather than eradicating the economic north-south divide, as Osborne purported it would, the plan has led to public spending in the north tumbling by £3.6bn since 2009-10. In the southeast and southwest it's risen by £4.7bn in real terms. Also over that time period and in real terms, transport spending rose by £330 per person in London and just £149 per person in the north. Employment, meanwhile, fell by 2.8 per cent in the region, dramatically outpacing London's 1.2 per cent fall. Northern weekly pay inched 2.4 per cent higher, compared to the 3.5 per cent rise nationally in real terms, and perhaps most strikingly, the IPPR report found that 200,000 more northern children are now living in a poor household than before. A total of 800,000 children now live in poverty in the north.

Osborne, back in June 2014 – with a general election on the not-too-distant horizon – crooned that the north would become the south’s “brother in arms”. But any fool can see that it's still Westminster's unloved stepchild. He pointed to Nissan and Hitachi as examples of “massive investments” in the region. But our government's Brexit plans have wreaked havoc with that.

As the IPPR states in its report, there is something deeply flawed about the fact that the north – home to some 15 million people and with an economy twice the size of Scotland's – is governed almost entirely by a group of people ensconced in the privileged metropolitan bubble of Westminster. Devolution is desirable and could make a real difference. Unfortunately though, that might prove irrelevant in the long run.

We're on the cusp of a new era for British politics, one which may well bring with it a cliff-edge departure from the EU under a prime minister by the name of Boris Johnson. While devastating for the City of London, a no-deal Brexit has the potential to basically bulldoze any hard-earned economic progress the north has achieved to date.

Analysis by the People's Vote campaign concludes that the region's economy would contract by up to £39.6bn in the case of a no-deal Brexit. That's almost four times the size of the economic gains made over the last five years. It equates to a hit worth nearly £2,900 per person. It also points out that the government would have to replace funding for the £400m Northern Powerhouse Investment Fund, which receives almost half its backing from the EU and the European Investment Bank. So long, good intentions.

What makes for truly shocking reading is the dossier of practical benefits compiled by the campaign, that it says would be at risk if the UK were to crash out of the bloc sans agreement. Highlights include over 570 investment projects from other EU countries which create or protect over 39,000 jobs, £300m for academic research and universities, and over 6,000 local students who were given the opportunity to study abroad.

Many of us living in the capital are guilty of having a blinkered view of the UK, for failing to consider parts of the country – whether north or south – which we don't and never did call home. Especially as journalists, we should endeavour to change that. It's ignorant and insulting. But if our next prime minister doesn't prioritise policy that's in the best interest of our country in its entirety (and surely that's in the basic job description of any respectable head of state) then that individual is clearly not fit for office.

Much as I wish it, I don't believe a Northern Powerhouse will be a reality any time soon. We can reasonably hope for northern awareness, northern commitment and northern investment if we're lucky. Even northern progress and northern change are feasible enough. But as ever, the bad news is that it all depends on Brexit. And as it stands, things are looking anything but rosy.