India’s Trump may have taken a knock, but Modi – like his great admirer – can bounce back

The Indian prime minister’s failure to secure an expected resounding victory will affect the country’s influence on the world stage, writes Kim Sengupta. But with the possibility of a Trump return to the White House in November, his fortunes could be brighter than expected

Narendra Modi has been elected prime minister of India for an unprecedented third term (AP)

Narendra Modi was the first world leader to be given a tour of the White House by a freshly elected Donald Trump. If that wasn’t enough of an honour, as well as a show of political intent, it was followed with a dinner attended by first lady Melania, vice-president Mike Pence, and every single senior member of the Trump administration.

Three years later, in 2020, Trump visited India with his family, and drew 125,000 people to a rally, “Namaste Trump”, at the Motera Stadium (now the Narendra Modi Stadium) in Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

After “Madman Across the Water” by Elton John and “Macho Man” by Village People – both Trump rally favourites – had been belted out to the dancing crowd, Trump laid it on thick: “America loves India, respects India. India gives hope to all of humanity.” Modi was “a man I am proud to call my true friend”.

That was then. In recent days, the two populist strongmen have experienced serious setbacks. Modi did not get the widely expected resounding majority in the general election. Trump became the first former president to become a convicted felon, having been found guilty on all counts in his hush money trial.

But Modi will still be the leader, albeit heading a coalition administration, for an unprecedented third term of the world’s most populous country with the fifth largest economy – one due to be the third largest by the end of the decade.

There are various permutations in the polls about the effect of Trump’s convictions on the electorate. But he continues to lead Joe Biden in five of the six battleground states, and may yet return as head of the world’s only remaining superpower.

While much of liberal Europe is aghast at the prospect of Trump redux, many in Modi’s circle think it will be good for India for a variety of reasons.

The Biden administration, like its recent predecessors in Washington, has been building diplomatic, economic and military ties with India with the aim of making it a strategic partner in an alliance against China.

But, at the same time, there have been expressions of concern from Biden’s team – “lectures”, according to more prickly Indian officials – about Modi’s Hindu nationalist policies, which have led to persistent claims of discrimination and alleged human rights abuse against Muslims. A Trump administration, it is felt, would not be too troubled by these issues.

Trump had been accused of being the Moscovian candidate for the White House in previous elections, and there is trepidation in the West about what kinds of deals he may strike with Vladimir Putin if he comes to power – with what happens in the Ukraine war the most obvious cause for concern.

There is also the probability that Biden’s attempts to rein back Benjamin Netanyahu over Gaza, limited as they are, will disappear under Trump.

Neither of these factors would necessarily perturb the Modi government. India has been resisting pressure from the US and the West to stop buying discounted Russian oil. Such pressure, it is felt, will ease away if Trump improves relations with Moscow.

While the Indian government has called for the end of killings of civilians in Gaza, relations with Israel have strengthened remarkably in recent years, especially on defence, and Delhi’s overall criticism of Israel has been muted

Figures in the Trump entourage are seen by the Modi government as being potentially helpful to India. Steve Bannon, who was one of Trump’s closest advisors before losing his place in the inner circle, remains highly influential in the Republican right wing. Bannon, who was honorary chair of the Republican Hindu coalition, is an avowed admirer of Modi, saying “Modi was a Trump before Trump”.

There is also a question of people with Indian heritage becoming senior figures in a Trump administration. Trump wanted to appoint Kash Patel, a former Pentagon chief of staff, as acting CIA director. He is likely to get a senior security job if Trump wins. There is hope that Vivek Ramaswamy, the wealthy entrepreneur who had sought the Republican nomination, would be chosen as the vice-presidential candidate.

It is unlikely that Ramaswamy will be Trump’s choice for the job. And having someone of Indian background in the top job in Britain did not help to get the much sought-after post-Brexit trade deal over the line. The deal, after two and half years and 14 rounds of talks, remains unsigned under Sunak.

After the UK left the EU, Theresa May’s first trip outside Europe was to India. Boris Johnson’s visit was stopped by Covid, although he had been there multiple times as foreign secretary, as had Liz Truss in that post along with other British foreign, business and defence secretaries.

But the bewildering churn of UK ministers left the Indian government weary. There were no guarantees that those taking part in the talks would be there in three months.

The Labour Party’s relations with the Indian government were fraught under Jeremy Corbyn, who had spoken out over Kashmir – the ownership of which is a source of bitter dispute between India and Pakistan – a number of times. The British branch of the Overseas Friends of BJP, Modi’s party, campaigned in favour of Tory candidates against Labour in 48 marginal seats at the 2019 general election.

Since then, a number of shadow cabinet members have visited India. Keir Starmer says he is determined to “reset” links, and pursue a “respectful, open relationship” with Modi “based on the future, not the past”. The fact that Modi failed to get an overall majority will help. Most of his probable coalition partners do not share his strident Hindu nationalist views, and he will have to tone down some of his sectarian politics.

India is the EU’s third largest trading partner, although a trade deal is yet to be concluded. A range of proposals to cooperate on trade, technology and security are under discussion, and a five-year roadmap may be unveiled at a bilateral summit next year.

America has requested for India to join “Nato plus”, a broadening of informal partnerships for the Western alliance. The interest of Nato and the EU to get closer to India is due to China.

India is a member of the Quadrilateral group alongside the US, Japan and Australia, as well as the Malabar naval exercises with the same nations, both set up to counter Chinese expansionism.

China has been involved in confrontations with other neighbouring states in the South and East China Seas over its claims to mineral-rich seabeds and islands. Indian troops and Chinese troops have clashed at the two countries’ Himalayan borders.

The US administration, whether under Biden or Trump, will continue to increasingly concentrate on the challenge posed by China. It will expect India, which seeks great power status, to step up and play a wider role in the international arena.

India in turn would benefit, Modi’s critics point out, with the government focusing more on the outside world and away from divisive policies at home – which, election voting has shown, has become a source of alarm among the people.